Dole for Senate 2002, Campaign Polls, August-October 2001

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Extent (Dublin Core)

9 Pages

File Name (Dublin Core)

c042_033_015_all

Title (Dublin Core)

Dole for Senate 2002, Campaign Polls, August-October 2001

Date (Dublin Core)

2001-08/2001-10

Date Created (Dublin Core)

2001-08/2001-10

Congress (Dublin Core)

107th (2001-2003)

Policy Area (Curation)

Government Operations and Politics

Creator (Dublin Core)

Hill Research Consultants

Record Type (Dublin Core)

memorandums

Names (Dublin Core)

See all items with this value Dole, Elizabeth Hanford

Rights (Dublin Core)

http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/CNE/1.0/

Language (Dublin Core)

eng

Collection Finding Aid (Dublin Core)

https://dolearchivecollections.ku.edu/index.php?p=collections/findingaid&id=343&q=

Physical Location (Dublin Core)

Collection 042, Box 33, Folder 15

Institution (Dublin Core)

Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS

Archival Collection (Dublin Core)

Elizabeth Hanford Dole Senate Papers, 2001-2009

Full Text (Extract Text)

Page 1:
Sent By: ; 1; Oct-24-01 16:51; Page 2/3

Hill
Hill Research Consultants
Information for leadership since 1988
2202 Timberloch Place, Suite 100
The Woodlands, TX 77380-1149
TEL 281-363-3840 FAX 281-298-1988 dhill@hillresearch.com

Memo

TO: Dole 2002 Committee, Inc.
FROM: David B. Hill, Ph.D., Director
DATE: October 24, 2001
SUBJECT: Results of polling conducted October 15-17

Our firm completed the poll recently commissioned by your committee. From October 15-17, we conducted telephone interviews with a statewide base sample of 600 likely voters for the November 2002 election. In addition, we completed interviews with more than 300 likely GOP primary voters. Added to the GOP primary voters in the base sample of 600, we polled a total of 395 voters that are likely to vote in the 2002 Republican primary. The final results of the combined 994 interviews are weighted to reflect the appropriate percentages of males and females, minorities, Republicans and Democrats, primary voters, and residents of each major county and region in the state. The margin of error for the total sample is +-4% for the total sample and +-5 for GOP primary voters.

The poll found that Elizabeth Dole is by far the best known and most liked candidate in the 100% running for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate 80% seat. Ninety-five percent of all voters and 98% of 60% GOP primary voters say they know Elizabeth Dole. Opinions of Mrs. Dole are very favorable 40% :selected: as the chart at right illustrates. Eight in ten 20% voters (80%) statewide hold a favorable opinion of Dole-49% VERY favorable-while just one in 0% ten voters (11%) has an unfavorable opinion of All vaters GOP Primary her. Republican primary voters are even more enthusiastic about Elizabeth Dole with two out of three holding VERY favorable opinions of her. These are the highest favorable numbers ever recorded by our firm for any non-incumbent candidate for a statewide office.

[bar chart showing total favorable, very unfavorable, and unfavorable, on a scale of 0% to 100% by 20's, for all voters and GOP primary; "total favorable" and "very favorable" bars illegible; "unfavorable" bar at about 15% for all voters]

Other candidates considering the race are less well known and not as well liked: Richard Vinroot is known to 79% of voters, 48% favorable and 21% unfavorable; Erskine Boles, 59% 26% and 18%; Dan Blue, 43%, 25% and 8%; Elaine Marshall, 43%, 22% and 7%.

Reasons for Mrs. Dole's popularity are varied:
· 86% feel It's accurate to say, "She knows how to get things done in Washington."
· 83% agree that Dole Is "an energetic leader that people will follow."
· 82% of voters believe she is "one of the nation's most qualified women in politics today."
. 73% concur that Dole is "the fresh perspective that North Carolina politics needs today."

Dole's substantial political advantage entering this race is most evident in voters' choices of candidates in trial heats. First, Elizabeth Dole dominates a Republican primary. In a field of

Page 1 of 2

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Sent By: ; 1; Oct-24-01 16:52; Page 3/3

HRC North Carolina Polling Results 10/24/01

more than five candidates, Dole grabs 76% of the vote, beating second-place finisher Richard Vinroot by 62 percentage points.

[chart titled "GOP primary (n=395)", displaying Vinroot with 14%, Dole with 76%, "Fisher Parker Snyder Other" with 3%, and Undecided with 7%]

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary is a balanced contest with Elaine Marshall and Erskine Bowles each getting 24% of the vote followed closely by Dan Blue with 20%.

In the general election, Dole's advantage remains strong as the chart below demonstrates, with her soundly defeating any of the prospective Democrats. An examination of the crosstabs reveals that Dole bests the most potent Democrat, Bowles, by comparably wide margins in virtually every category of voters and every region of the state. Even among many traditionally Democrat leaning groups Dole does well, winning 60% or more of the vote in most key categorles except for self-described liberals, pro-choice voters, and minority voters. And even in those tough categories for a Republican candidate, Dole earns an impressive share of votes. For example, she gets 34% of the minority vote compared with Bowles' 56%.

[bar graph titled "General election matchups" showing bars for Dole and Democrat, with Marshall, Blue, and Bowles as X variables (X row titled: "Dole versus")and a scale of 0%-80% by 20's for Y variables; Dole versus Marshall bar for "Dole" variable is 69% and for "Democrat" variable is 20%; Dole versus Blue bar for "Dole" variable is 66% and for "Democrat" variable is 23%; Dole versus Bowles bar for "Dole" variable is 65% and for "Democrat" variable is 27%]

In sum, Elizabeth Dole starts this race in first place, well ahead of her nearest competition, and ideally positioned to prevail In the tightened race that is certain to follow next year.

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horizontal on right side of page: 08/29/01 18:58 FAX 619 646 0712 GATEWAY 002

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Wednesday, August 29, 2001 5:34 P.M.

North Carolina Democratic Primary - US Senate Race
August 27, 2001
A Portrait of America Survey shows Jim Hunt would be the winner of the North Carolina Democratic primary if the election were held today.
Hunt 43%
Marshall 12%
Blue 9%
Erwin 2%

Rasmussen Research
Please call 1-919-839-6377 for information about Rasmussen Research and how Rasmussen Research can perform surveys for you. Visit the Rasmussen Research web site by clicking the logo. Rasmussen Research is the principal provider of research for Portrait of America.

North Carolina Republican Primary - US Senate Race
August 27, 2001
If the North Carolina Republican
Dole 65%
Faircloth 9%

Presidential Job Performance
June 26, 2001
How do you rate the overall way George W. Bush is performing his job as President? Excellent, Good,
handwritten note drawn to paragraph: Dole 65%, Fairc. 9%, Vinroot 8%, Burr 7%; starred

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Page 2 of 4

horizontal on right side of page: 08/29/01 18:59 FAX 619 646 0712 GATEWAY 003

Portrait of America, The #1 source for public opinion data!

continuation of "North Carolina Republican Primary - US Senate Race August 27, 2001" from previous page:
primary were held today. Elizabeth Dole would have no trouble winning.
Vinroot 8%
Burr 7%

continuation of "Presidential Job Performance June 26, 2001" from previous page:
Fair or Poor
[illegible pie chart]
click the logo or call 1-919-839-6377 to see how your business or organization can benefit by using the [illegible].
section starred

Elizabeth Dole - Carbetbagger Charges Won't Fly (section starred)
August 27, 2001
By a 3 to 1 margin, North Carolinians reject the carpetbagger charge. 67% say she should not be disqualified from running for the US Senate despite the fact that she has lived out of state for many years.

Transportation Issues: Bush's Job Performance
June 27, 2001
How do you rate the President's job performance as it relates to transportation? Excellent, Good, Fair or Poor
[pie chart showing "Ex 11%", "Gd 25%", "Fr 25%", "Pr 13%", and "NS 20%"]

US Senator Helms Announces Retirement
August 27, 2001
When asked if Senators should be limited to a maximum of two terms or twelve years in office, 45% responded with a "Yes," 38% said "No".

How Many Hours Should Doctors Work?
June 22, 2001
Most Americans say doctors should work no more than 60 hours a week to ensure patient care does not suffer.

National Defense
July 2, 2001
How do you rate the President's job performance as it relates to national defense? Excellent, Good, Fair or Poor

Welfare
June 27, 2001
How do you

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8/29/01

Page 5:
Aug-29-01 12:30P P.01

Portrait of America | North Carolina US Senate Race
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August 27, 2001
North Carolina US Senate Race

A Portrait of America survey conducted on August 25 and 26, 2001 asked 1292 likely general election voters in North Carolina who would be their choice for US Senator if the general election comes down to different pairs of candidates. When Elizabeth Dole was the Republican candidate she won each time. Even in the closest match- up, Dole vs. Jim Hunt, she received 56% to Hunt's 44%.

Question Wording:
1. If the general election comes down to Democrat Jim Hunt and Republican Elizabeth Dole, for whom would you vote?
44% Jim Hunt
56% Elizabeth Dole

2. If the general election comes down to Democrat Jim Hunt and Republican Richard Vinroot, for whom would you vote?
59% Jim Hunt
41% Richard Vinroot

3. If the general election comes down to Democrat Jim Hunt and Republican Lauch Faircloth, for whom would you vote?
61% Jim Hunt
39% Lauch Faircloth

4. If the general election comes down to Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Elizabeth Dole, for whom would you vole?
34% Elaine Marshall
66% Elizabeth Dole

http://www.portraitofamerica.com/html/poll-1679.html
8/29/2001

Page 6:
Aug-29-01 12:30P P.02
Portrait of America | North Carolina US Senate Race
Page 2 of 2

5. If the general election comes down to Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Richard Vinroot, for whom would you vote?
49% Elaine Marshall
51% Richard Vinroot

6. If the general election comes down to Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Lauch Faircloth, for whom would you vote?
54% Elaine Marshall
46% Lauch Faircloth

7. If the general election comes down to Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Elizabeth Dole, for whom would you vote?
34% Dan Blue
66% Elizabeth Dole

8. If the general election comes down to Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Richard Vinroot, for whom would you vote?
45% Dan Blue
55% Richard Vinroot

9. If the general election comes down lo Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Lauch Faircloth, for whom would you vote?
49% Dan Blue
51% Lauch Faircloth

----------------------------

Portrait of America conducted this survey of 1292 likely (illegible) North Carolina on August 25 and 26, 2001 The (illegible) of sampling (illegible) with a 95% level of confidence.

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http://www.portraitofamerica.com/html/poll-1679.html
8/29/2001

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Aug-29-01 12:31P P.03
Portrait of America | North Carolina Republican Primary - US Senate Race
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August 27, 2001

North Carolina Republican Primary - US Senate Race

If the North Carolina Republican primary were held today, Elizabeth Dole would have no trouble winning. A Portrait of America survey of likely Republican primary voters shows Mrs. Dole capturing 65% of the vote. She ranks high among both men (63%) and women (67%).

Question Wording:
1. If the 2002 North Carolina Republican primary were held today, for which US Senate candidate would you be most likely to vole?
7% Richard Burr
65% Elizabeth Dole
8% Richard Vinroot
9% Lauch Faircloth
2% Some other candidate
9% Not sure

Portrait of America conducted this survey of 530 likely Republican primary voters in the state of North Carolina on August 25 and 26, 2001. The margin of sampling error is (illegible) percentage points with a 95%, level of confidence.

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8/29/2001

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Aug-29-01 12:31P P.04

Portrait of America | Elizabeth Dole - Carpetbagger Charges Won't Fly Page 1 of 1

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August 27, 2001
Elizabeth Dole - Carpetbagger Charges Won't Fly
There is no problem with Elizabeth Dole's lack of North Carolina residency as far as support for her candidacy for the US Senate goes. A recent Portrait of America survey shows 67% of likely general election voters think she should not be disqualified from seeking the office of US Senator from North Carolina.

Only 27% of men and 25% of women say she should be disqualified. Among African-American voters, however, 49% say she should be disqualified and 41% say she should not.

Question Wording:
1. Friday, Elizabeth Dole registered to vote in North Carolina. Mrs. Dole was born in North Carolina and has family and some business ties to North Carolina, but has not lived in the state for more than thirty years. Do you think this should disqualify her from running for the North Carolina US Senate seat?
26% Yes
67% No
8% Not sure

Portrait of America conducted this survey of 1292 (illegible) general election voters in the state of North Carolina on August 25 and 26, 2001 The margin of sampling (illegible) is .. . 8 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

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http://www.portraitofamerica.com/html/poll-1676.html
8/29/2001

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Aug-29-01 12:31P P.05

Portrait of America | North Carolina Democratic Primary - US Senate Race
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portrait of america

August 27, 2001
North Carolina Democratic Primary - US Senate Race
A Portrait of America survey shows Jim Hunt would be the winner of the North Carolina Democratic primary if the election were held today. 43% of likely Democratic. primary voters said they would be most likely to vote for former NC Governor Jim Hunt. Elaine Marshall was second in line with 12%.

Question Wording:
1. If the 2002 North Carolina Democratic primary were held today, for which US Senate candidate would you be most likely to vote?
12% Elaine Marshall
9% Dan Blue
2% Mark Erwin
43% Jim Hunt
21% Some other candidate
13% Not sure

Portrait of America conducted this survey of 543 likely Democratic primary voters to the state of North Carolina on August 25 and 26, 2001. The margin of sampling error is (illegible) percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

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http://www.portraitofamerica.com/html/poll-1677.html
8/29/2001

Dole for Senate 2002, Campaign Polls, August-October 2001

Item