Class of &#039;94 Meeting, March 2, 1993

Class of '94 Meeting, March 2, 1993

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Other Media: lead_406_025_all_tr.txt; lead_406_025_all_tr.docx

Transcription (Scripto): Read Full Text Only (TXT)
Extent (Dublin Core): 57 Pages
File Name (Dublin Core): lead_406_025_all
Title (Dublin Core): Class of '94 Meeting, March 2, 1993
Date (Dublin Core): 1993-03-02
Date Created (Dublin Core): 1993-03-02
Congress (Dublin Core): 103rd (1993-1995)
Policy Area (Curation): Congress
Creator (Dublin Core): Dole, Robert J., 1923-2021
Record Type (Dublin Core): attendance lists; memorandums; reports
Names (Dublin Core): Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Incorporated
Rights (Dublin Core): http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/CNE/1.0/
Language (Dublin Core): eng
Collection Finding Aid (Dublin Core): https://dolearchivecollections.ku.edu/index.php?p=collections/findingaid&id=26&q=
Physical Location (Dublin Core): Collection 007, Box 406, Folder 25
Institution (Dublin Core): Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS
Archival Collection (Dublin Core): Robert J. Dole Republican Leadership Collection, 1985-1996
Full Text (Extract Text): (Page 1)

TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 1993
8:30 A.M. - S-230
CLASS OF '94
Dole Lott Chafee Hatch - will be late Lugar Roth - will be late Wallop Burns Durenberger Gorton Jeffords Mack
Tony Fabrizio - will attend for about 15 to 20 minutes Senator Danforth has a conflict and can't make it.
Do you want any staff to sit in?
Yes no
Jo Ann Shiela whit

(Page 2)

FEB 08'93 12:27 No.002 P.02
ID:202-408-5117
BOB DOLE
February 8, 1993
MEMORANDUM TO THE LEADER
FROM: SUZANNE NIEMELA
THROUGH : JO-ANNE COE
RE: BREAKFAST WITH FABRIZIO/SENATORS
Tony Fabrizio called me to express your interest in setting up a breakfast meeting between yourself, Tony Fabrizio and other GOP Senators to go over the recent polling figures. From your conversation with Tony we assume you would like the following to attend: ®
Class of '94
Freshman Senators .
(illegible)
If there are others whom you would like to invite, please advise.
For your information, we have copies of the poll at Campaign America and have sent copies to the class of 1994.
Shall I schedule a breakfast with Yvonne? I understand this would be after the recess.
YES (Checkmark)
NO
Joyce is (illegible)
15 minutes
Tues. Feb., 23, 1993 8:15 a.m.

(Page 3)

Tues. Feb, 23, 1993 815 8-a.m.
TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 1993 8:30 A.M. - S-230 CLASS OF '94
Dole Burns Chafee Durenberger Gorton - late Hatch - will be late Jeffords Lott Lugar Mack Roth - will be late Wallop
Tony Fabrizio will join the group at 9:00 a.m.
Sheila Whit Jo-Anne

(Page 4)
SUBJECT: Class of ‘94
DATE: Tues., March 2
TIME: 8:30 am
LOCATION: S-230
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP
Senator Position Invited Yes No
Cochran Conference
Dole Republican Leader (Checkmark) (Checkmark)
Gramm Senatorial Committee
Lott Conference Secretary (Checkmark) (Checkmark)
Nickles Policy Chairman
Simpson Asst. Republican Leader

RANKING COMMITTEE MEMBERS
Senator Committee Invited Yes No
Chafee Environment (Checkmark) (Checkmark)
Cohen Special Aging
Danforth Commerce (Checkmark) (Checkmark)?
Domenici Budget
D’Amato Banking
Hatfield Appropriations
Hatch Judiciary (Checkmark) Late
Helms Foreign Relations
Kassebaum labor
Lugar Agriculture (Checkmark) (Checkmark)
McCain Select – Indian affairs
McConnell Ethics
Murkowski Veterans’ Affairs (Checkmark) (Checkmark) Will be late
Packwood Finance
Pressler Small Business
Roth Gov’t Affairs & Jt. Econ
Stevens Rules & Administration
Thurmond Armed Services
Wallop Energy
Warner Intelligence

REPUBLICANS
Bennet Gorton
Bond Grassley
Brown Gregg
Burns Jeffords
Coats Kempthorne
Coverdell Mack
Craig Smith
Durenberger Specter
Faircloth

DEMOCRATS
Akaka Kerrey
Baucus Kerry
Biden Kohl
Bingaman Krueger
Boren Lautenberg
Boxer Leahy
Bradley Levin
Breaux Lieberman
Bryan Mathews
Bumpers Metzenbaum
Byrd Mikulski
Campbell Mitchell
Conrad Moseley-Braun
Daschle Moynihan
DeConcini Murray
Dodd Nunn
Dorgan Pell
Exon Pryor
Feingold Reid
Feinstein Riegle
Ford Robb
Glenn Rockefeller
Graham Sarbanes
Harkin Sasser
Heflin Shelby
Hollings Simon
Inouye Wellstone
Johnston Wofford
Kennedy

OTHERS:
Tony Fabrizio
PF.020

(Page 5)

Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates
NATIONAL STUDY OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS
CONDUCTED BY FABRIZIO, MCLAUGHLIN AND ASSOCIATES JANUARY, 1993
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. (703) 684-4510 FAX (703) 739-0664
801 North Fairfax Street - Suite 312 - Alexandria, Virginia 22314

(Page 6)

CONTENTS
. BACKGROUND
. METHODOLOGY
. QUESTIONNAIRE AND TOP LINE DATA
. DATA OVERVIEW
. KEY FINDINGS
· EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND DEMOGRAPHICS

(Page 7)

BACKGROUND
Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates is a nationally recognized polling firm specializing in providing survey research to Republican candidates and organizations across the nation. In 1992, the firm's clients included the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, Senator Lauch Faircloth (NC), Senator Robert Bennett (UT), Congressmen Ben Gilman, Tom Bliley, Rick Lazio, Bill Goodling and Peter King to name a few. In the past, Tony Fabrizio and John Mclaughlin have worked for Senators Al D'Amato (NY), Bob Dole (KS), Jesse Helms (NC), Gordon Humphrey (NH), Connie Mack (FL) and Don Nickles (OK) among others.
This study was commissioned by the firm to get a better understanding of the Republican Party in the post Bush and Reagan eras. Determining how Republicans currently feel about their party, their opinions on the issues perceived to divide the party and the issues they believe the party should focus on in the future were central in constructing this study. The main goals of this study are to provide the party leadership with a blueprint for reconstructing our winning electoral majority, debunking several commonly held myths about Republican beliefs and determining key issues to unite all factions of our party in the future.

(Page 8)

Methodology
This survey of political attitudes was conducted exclusively among Republican voters nationally between January 4th through 7th, 1993, by Fabrizio, Mclaughlin and Associates. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professionally trained interviewers. Respondents were screened for party affiliation, and interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with the actual voter distribution of the 1992 Presidential election. This survey of 800 Republican voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.46% at the 95% confidence interval.

(Page 9)

QUESTIONNAIRE AND TOP LINE DATA

(Page 10)

Fabrizio Mclaughlin & Associates
FABRIZIO, MCLAUGHLIN & ASSOCIATES NATIONAL SURVEY OF REPUBLICANS JANUARY, 1993
N = 800 REPUBLICAN VOTERS NATIONALLY
Introduction: Good evening. My name is and I'm calling from Fabrizio, Mclaughlin & Associates, a national public opinion firm. This evening we're conducting a short political survey and we'd like to get your opinions.
Did you vote in November's Presidential election?
1. Yes (Continue) 2. No/All other responses (Terminate)
With which political party are you affiliated?
1. Republican (Continue) 2. Democrat (Terminate)
3. Independent (Terminate) 4. Other (Terminate)
5. DK/Refused (Terminate)
If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a Liberal, a Moderate, or a Conservative in your political beliefs? (If said Liberal or Conservative - ask: "And would that be very liberal/conservative or only somewhat liberal/conservative?")
1. Very Liberal (4.1%)
2. Somewhat Liberal (8.0%)
Combo Liberal (12.1%)
3. Moderate (35.5%)
4. Somewhat Conservative (31.3%)
5. Very Conservative (18.0%)
Combo Conservative (49.3%)
6. DK/Refused (3.1%)
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. · (703) 684-4510 - FAX (703) 739-0664 801 North Fairfax Street · Suite 312 · Alexandria, Virginia 22314

(Page 11)

When you think about Conservatism and the Conservative philosophy, what is the first thing that comes to mind?
1. Traditional values 9.6%
2. Oppose gov't spending/waste 9.5%
3. Oppose big gov't spending/waste 3.5%
4. Strict/narrow minded 3.3%
5. No change/status quo/establishment 3.3%
6. Economic/fiscal principles 3.3%
7. Abortion/pro-life 3.3%
8. Common sense/thoughtful/reasonable 3. 1%
9. Oppose taxes/favor low taxes 2.9%
10. Fight/oppose budget deficit 2. 4%
Now I am going to read you a list of names. Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each? If you have no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say so.
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard of
George Bush 85.6% 9.6% 4.8% -
Bill Clinton 31.1% 42.6% 26.3% -
Ronald Reagan 73.1% 16.9% 9.8% 0.3%
Ross Perot 44.5% 32.3% 22.6% 0.6%
Jack Kemp 44.8% 9.9% 32.3% 13.1%
Dan Quayle 60.1% 25.3% 14.0% 0.6%
Pat Robertson 27.6% 39.6% 24.0% 8.8%
Bill Bennett 17.1% 6.8% 28.4% 47.8%
Bob Dole 62.1% 10.4% 21.8% 5.8%
Phil Gramm 21.5% 10.6% 29.4% 38.5%
Pat Buchanan 32.6% 34.9% 27.6% 4.9%
Rush Limbaugh 34.0% 17.1% 23.8% 25.1%

What do you like most about the Republican Party?
1. Conservative views/issues/positions 14.6%
2. Issues/views/positions/beliefs 11.8%
3. Good job/like/candidates 7.5%
4. Traditional morals/values 5.8%
5. Free enterprise/capitalism/pro-business 4.0%
6. Oppose big gov't/for less gov't 3.6%
7. Oppose taxes 3.6%
8. Foreign policy 3.5%
9. Economic issues/principles 3.1%
10. Oppose gov't spending/waste 3.0%

(Page 12)

What do you like least about the Republican Party?
1. For wealthy/rich 6.4%
2. Abortion stand/pro-life 5.6%
3. Too/ultra conservative 4.6%
4. Bad presidential campaign/didn't fight back 4.3%
5. Out of touch with middle class 2.9%
6. Need to fight for Republican issues/stand
up to Democrats 2.9%
7. Scandal/corruption 2.4%
8. Flip-flops/broken promises 2.3%
9. The economy/economic policies 2.1%
10. Some bad candidates 2.0%

There are three basic proposals being suggested to reform our health care system, please tell me which of these proposals you favor most?
1. A system where private businesses would be forced by law to provide coverage for all its employees regardless of the cost (9.0%)
2. A government-run national health care system which would be funded by establishing a national sales tax and increasing income taxes, or (12.0%)
3. Reforming the current system by making it more affordable by creating more tax breaks for individuals and families wishing to purchase health care (71.3%)
4. Maintain the current system (Volunteered) (2.1%)
5. DK/Refused (5.6%)

From the following list, which issue is personally most important to you? (Rotate choices)
1. Cutting taxes and wasteful government spending (25.6%)
2. Reducing unemployment and getting our economy moving (15.5%)
3. Restoring honesty to government (9.5%)
4. Improving education (8.8%)
5. Fighting crime and drugs (7.8%)
6. Prohibiting abortion (6.5%)
7. Providing affordable health care (5.9%)
8. Protecting social security (5.6%)
9. Strengthening national defense and keeping our Country safe from war (4.6%)
10. Protecting the environment (3.9%)
11. Don't Know/Refused (6.4%)

(Page 13)

Which of the following comes closest to your opinion regarding the issue of abortion?
1. A woman should have an unrestricted right to choose to have an abortion at any time (25.1%)
2. A woman should have the right to choose an abortion for any reason within the first three months of pregnancy (26.4%)
3. Abortion should only be permitted in the case of rape, incest, or to protect the health of the mother (27.4%)
4. Abortion should only be permitted to save the life of the mother (11.4%)
5. Abortion should not be permitted under any circumstances (6.6%)
6. DK/Refused (2.6%)

If Ross Perot organized a third major national party, how likely is it that you would leave the Republican Party and join Ross Perot's Independent party - very likely, only somewhat likely, not likely at all?
1. Very likely (16.6%)
2. Somewhat likely (26.5%)
3. Not likely (53.0%)
4. DK/Refused (3.9%)

With President Bush leaving office, who in your opinion is now the leader of the Republican Party?
1. Bob Dole 23.6%
2. Jack Kemp 9.3%
3. None/no leader 6.6%
4. Jim Baker 4.4%
5. (Still) George Bush 4.4%
6. Dan Quayle 2.4%
7. Pat Buchanan 0.8%
8. Ronald Reagan 0.5%
9. Rush Limbaugh 0.4%
10. Phil Gramm 0.4%
Think for a moment about which aspect of Republican philosophy most attracted you to the party - was it economic policies such as support for lower taxes, less government spending and economic growth; social policies such as support for the death penalty and educational choice; moral policies such as opposition to abortion and gay rights or foreign policy such as opposition to communism and support of pro-freedom movements around the world?
1. Economic Policies (45.3%)
2. Social Policies (9.9%)
3. Moral Policies (11.9%)
4. Foreign Policies (15.1%)
5. All of the Above (Volunteered) (10.3%)
6. None of the above/other reasons (Volunteered) (5.4%)
7. DK/Refused (2.3%)

(Page 14)

In your opinion, who or what is the single greatest threat to the Republican Party?
1. Democrats (General) /liberal Democrats 7.8%
2. Bill Clinton 7.6%
3. Republicans/themselves 6.5%
4. Economy/current economic problems 4.1%
5. No unity/disorganized/divisiveness 4.0%
6. Liberal media 3.0%
7. Nothing/no threat 2.9%
8. Liberals/left wing/ultra liberals 2.8%
9. Too/ultra conservative 2.6%
10. Ross Perot 2.5%

From the following list, who is your first choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1996? (Rotate choices)
1. Jack Kemp 21.6%
2. Bob Dole 21.1%
3. Jim Baker 11.3%
4. Dan Quayle 10.3%
5. Dick Cheney 6.1%
6. Pat Buchanan 4.0%
7. Pat Robertson 2.8%
8. Phil Gramm 2.5%
9. Other 1.6%
10. William Weld 1.3%
11. Pete DuPont 0.9%
12. Bill Bennett 0.1%
13. Undecided 16.5%

Now from the same list who would be your second choice? (Rotate choices)
1. Bob Dole 18.4%
2. Jack Kemp 11.6%
3. Dan Quayle 8.0%
4. Dick Cheney 7.6%
5. Jim Baker 7.4%
6. Pat Buchanan 5.0%
7. Phil Gramm 3.6%
8. Bill Bennett 3.3%
9. Pat Robertson 2.4%
10. Pete Dupont 1.1%
11. William Weld 0.6%
12. Other 0.6%
13. Undecided 14.4%

(Page 15)

In January, the members of the Republican National Committee will choose a new chairman who will run the Party for the next two years. In your opinion, which of the following traits or characteristics is most important for this new Chairman to have? (Rotate choices)
1. Will uphold the Republican Party's conservative positions (27.9%)
2. Can discuss and debate national issues in the media (22.6%)
3. Have "nuts and bolts" grassroots campaign experience (17.5%)
4. Is not connected to the Washington establishment or any future Presidential candidate (16.1%)
5. All of the above (Volunteered) (7.4%)
6. None of the above (Volunteered) (2.8%)
7. Don't Know/Refused (5.8%)
The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tell me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how you would rate each of the following? (Rotate questions)

Top Priority Not Priority at All
1 2 3 4 5 DK/Ref. Mean
Eliminate Wasteful government spending 78.0% 11.6% 6.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.5% 1.37
Find solutions to provide affordable health care 46.3% 30.6% 15.5% 3.1% 2.9% 1.6% 1.84
Prohibit abortion 21.1% 10.5% 13.9% 7.5% 45.8% 1.3% 3.47
Reduce personal income taxes 29.0% 19.1% 32.0% 10.3% 8.5% 1.1% 2.50
Enact tougher laws to fight crime 53.0% 21.4% 15.5% 5.5% 3.6% 1.0% 1.84
Block gay rights laws 20.6% 9.9% 19.4% 9.6% 36.5% 4.0% 3.33
Promote parental choice for their children’s education 39.5% 23.6% 20.3% 7.8% 7.5% 1.4% 2.19
Reduce business taxes 24.0% 24.8% 27.6% 9.4% 11.0% 3.3% 2.57
Balance the federal budget 68.3% 17.9% 7.9% 2.5% 2.9% 0.6% 1.53
Reduce the federal deficit 67.6% 16.3% 8.3% 2.9% 3.9% 1.1% 1.58
Free Cuba from Communism by ousting Fidel Castro 16.1% 8.4% 16.8% 18.6% 36.8% 2.4% 3.52
Promote traditional family values 54.5% 19.4% 12.4% 5.5% 7.4% 0.9% 1.91
Reduce the size of federal bureaucracy 51.0% 25.0% 16.4% 3.1% 2.8% 1.8% 1.80

(Page 16)

Continued
Eliminate unnecessary federal regulations 43.9% 28.5% 18.0% 4.3% 3.8% 1.6% 1.94
Support voluntary prayer in schools 42.9% 15.9% 18.1% 8.0% 14.1% 1.0% 2.34
Maintain a strong national defense 54.4% 24.4% 16.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.72
Promote individual freedom and liberty 65.6% 16.5% 11.9% 2.3% 2.4% 1.4% 1.57
Protect America from Mideast terrorists 56.5% 20.6% 16.0% 3.3% 2.6% 1.0% 1.74
Make sure nuclear weapons within the Nations of the former Soviet Union are reduced or eliminated 50.1% 25.9% 16.3% 3.5% 3.4% 0.9% 1.83

The following are some reasons a person might leave the Republican Party. If each were true, tell me whether you would remain a Republican or would you leave the Republican Party?

Leave Party Remain Repub. Unsure (Volt’rd) DK/refused
The Republican Party favored raising taxes 23.3% 64.9% 10.3% 1.6%
The Republican Party supported abortion rights 26.3% 66.0% 6.4% 1.4%
The Republican Party opposed cutting wasteful federal spending 44.8% 47.6% 6.1% 1.5%
The Republican party supported a drastic cut in the military 29.6% 58.3% 9.5% 2.6%
The Republican Party supported gay rights laws 34.6% 53.3% 8.9% 3.3%
The Republican Party favored more government regulation 40.8% 47.6% 9.8% 1.9%

(Page 17)

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following. (Rotate Choices)
Agree Disagree DK/ Refused
President Bush lost the election because he broke his “no new taxes” pledge and raised taxes 20.3% 76.9% 2.9%
Pat Robertson and Conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party 13.9% 76.1% 10.0%

What is the last grade of formal education you have completed?
1. Less than high school graduate (5.3%)
2. High school graduate (28.1%)
3. Some College (27.1%)
4. College graduate (27.5%)
5. Post graduate (11.1%)
6. Don't Know/Refused (0.9%)

What is your annual family income - Is it under $20, 000, between $20,001 & $40,000, between $40,001 & $60,000, or over $60,000?
1. Under $20,000 (14.5%)
2. Between $20,001 & $40,000 (28.5%)
3. Between $40,001 & $60,000 (22.4%)
4. Over $60,000 (20.4%)
5. Don't Know/Refused (14.3%)
MEAN = 43.72

What is your national ancestry other than American?
1. German (23.9%)
2. Polish (13.5%)
3. Italian (15.8%)
4. European/English (24.9%)
5. Russian (0.6%)
6. Irish (14.6%)
7. French/French Canadian (3.4%)
8. Puerto Rican/Hispanic (1.5%)
9. Greek (0.4%)
10. African/American (1.5%)
11. DK/Refused (0.0%)

(Page 18)

What is your religion?
1. Fundamentalist Protestant (11.0%)
2. Evangelical Protestant (8.9%)
3. Mainstream Protestant (45.8%)
4. Catholic (26.1%)
5. Jewish (0.9%)
6. Atheist/Agnostic (1.9%)
7. Don't Know/Refused (5.5%)

What is your race?
1. Hispanic (1.6%)
2. African American (1.6%)
3. White (93.9%)
4. Other (1.3%)
5. Refused (1.6%)
What is your age?
1. 18-25 (8.3%)
2. 26-40 (32.9%)
3. 41-55 (26.1%)
4. 56-65 (11.8%)
5. Over 65 (19.8%)
6. Refused (1.3%)
MEAN = 47.18
Gender:
1. Male (49.5%)
2. Female (50.5%)
Area:
1. New England (6.3%)
2. Middle Atlantic (15.5%)
3. East North Central (18.5%)
4. West North Central (8.5%)
5. South Atlantic (15.8%)
6. East South Central (5.6%)
7. West South Central (9.8%)
8. Mountain (5.5%)
9. Pacific (14.6%)

(Page 19)

DATA OVERVIEW

(Page 20)

GOP IDEOLOGY: CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE
"If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a Liberal, a Moderate, or a Conservative in your political beliefs?
Alt Text: Pie chart with conservative at 49%, Moderate at 36%, Liberal at 12% and D.K./Refused at 3%
(If said Liberal or Conservative, asked: "And would that be very liberal/conservative or only somewhat liberal/conservative?")
Alt Text: Bar chart with DK/Ref. at 3.1%, Very Conservative at 18%, Somewhat Conservat. at 31.3%, Moderate at 35.5%, Somewhat Liberal at 8%, and Very Liberal at 4.10%
-1-

(Page 21)

SUPPORT TRADITIONAL VALUES AND OPPOSITION TO BIG GOVERNMENT AND SPENDING ARE LEADING ISSUE ASSOCIATIONS WITH CONSERVATISM
"When you think about Conservativism, what is the first thing that comes to mind?"
Alt Text: Bar Graph showing what the first thing that comes to mind when you think of conservatism. Traditional values coming in fist at 9.6% followed by Opp. Gov Spnd/Waste 9.5%, Opp. Big Govt. 3.5%, Strict/narrow Minded 3.3% No Chnge/Status Quo 3.3%, Economic/Fiscal Prin. 3.3%, Abortion/Pro-life 3.3%, Common Sns/Reason 3.1%, Oppose Taxes/Low 2.9%, Oppose Budg. Deficit 2.4%
-2-

(Page 22)

TAXES, SPENDING AND THE ECONOMY ARE THE CURRENT CONCERNS OF GOPers
"From the following list, which issue is personally most important to you?"
Alt Text: Bar graph showing which issues are personally important. Cutting Taxes and Wasteful gov't Spending 25.6, Reduce Unemployment & Get Economy Moving 15.5, Restore Honesty to Government 9.5, Improve Education 8.8, Fight Crime and Drugs 7.8, Prohibit Abortion 6.5, Provide Affordable Health Care 5.9, Protect Social Security 5.6, Strengthen National Defense & Keep U.S. Safe 4.6, Protect the Environment 3.9, Don't Know/Refused 6.4
-3-

(Page 23)

GOP NEAR EVENLY DIVIDED ON ABORTION ISSUE
"Which of the following comes closest to your opinion regarding the issue of abortion?"
Alt Text: Bar graph regarding opinions on abortion. With Right to Choose Abortion at Any Time 25.1, Right to Choose Abortion Within First 2 Mos. 26.4, Only in Case of Rape, Incest or Mother's Life 27.4, Only Permitted to Save Mother's Life 11.4, Should Never be Permitted 6.6, and Don't know/Refused 2.6.
-4-

(Page 24)

GOPers DON'T SEE PAT ROBERTSON AND THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT IN CONTROL OF PARTY
"Pat Robertson and Conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party."
Alt Text: Pie chart with Disagree at 76%, Agree 14%, and D.K./Ref. at 10%.
-5-

(Page 25)

GOPers DON'T BLAME BUSH LOSS ON BROKEN "NO NEW TAXES" PLEDGE
Alt Text: Pie chart with Disagree at 77%, agree 20%, and D.K./Ref/ at 3%
-6-

(Page 26)

MOST GOPers ATTRACTED TO PARTY BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC POLICIEs
"Think for a moment about which aspect of Republican philosophy most attracted you to the party - was it economic policies such as support for lower taxes, less government spending and economic growth; social policies such as support for the death penalty and education choice; moral policies such as opposition to abortion and gay rights or foreign policy such as opposition to communism and support of pro-freedom movements around the world?"
Alt Text: Bar graph with Economic Policies at 45.3%, Social Policies at 9.9% Moral Policies 11.9% Foreign Policies 15.1%, All 4 Reasons (vol.) 10.3%, None/Other Reasons 5.4%, DK/Ref. 2.3%.
-7-

(Page 27)

CONSERVATIVE VIEWS AND VIEWS/BELIEFS ARE WHAT GOPers LIKE MOST ABOUT THE PARTY
"What do you like most about the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: bar graph showing Conservative Views at 14.6%, Issues/Views/Beliefs 11.8%. Good Job/Like 7.5%, traditional Values 5.8%. Free Ent./Capitalism 4%, Oppose Big Govt. 3.6%, Oppose Taxes 3.6%, Foreign Policy 3.5%, Economic Issues 3.1%, Opp. Gov Spnd/Waste 3%
-8-

(Page 28)

GOPers CITE PERCEPTION CONCERS OVER SPECIFIC ISSUES AS PARTY NEGATIVES
"What do you like least about the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: bar graph with Fore Wealthy/Rich 6.4% Abortion/Pro-Life 5.6%, Too/Ultra Conserv. 4.6%, Bad pres. Campaign 4.3%, Out Touch/Mid Class 2.9%, Not fight GOP Issues 2.9%, Scandal/Corruption 2.4% Flip-Flops/Brk Prom. 2.3%, Economic Policies 2.1% Some Bad Candidates 2%
-9-

(page 29)

BUSH AND REAGAN STILL GOP STARS
"Now I am going to read you a list of names. Will you please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you have no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say so."

Alt Text: bar graph with Bill Bennet unfavorable 6.8 Favorable 17.1 Phil Gramm unfavorable 10.6 Favorable 21.5 Pat Buchanan Unfavorable 34.9 Favorable 32.6 Dan Quayle unfavorable 25.3 favorable 60.1 Pat Robertson unfavorable 39.6 Favorable 27.6 Bob Dole unfavorable 10.4 favorable 62.1 Jack Kemp unfavorable 9.9 Favorable 44.8 Ronald Reagan Unfavorable 16.9 Favorable 73.1 George Bush unfavorable 9.6 favorable 85.5.
-10-

(Page 30)

SEN. DOLE SEEN AS PARTY LEADER, BUT LEADERSHIP VACUUM APPARENT
"With President Bush leaving office, who in your opinion is now the leader of the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: Bar graph with Bob Dole 23.6%, Jack Kemp 9.3%, None/No Leader 6.6%, Jim Baker 4.4%, George Bush (still) 4.4%, Dan Quayle 2.4%, Pat Buchanan 0.8%, Ronald Reagan 0.5%, Rush Limbaugh 0.4%, Phil Gramm 0.4%
-11-

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GOPers WANT A NATIONAL CHAIRMAN WHO WILL UPHOLD CONSERVATIVE POSITIONS AND BE A SPOKESMAN
"In January, the members of the Republican National Committee will choose a new Chairman who will run the Party for the next two years. In your opinion, which of the following traits or characteristics is most important for this new Chairman to have?" (Choices Rotated)
Alt Text: Bar graph Uphold Conservative Positions 27.9%, Discuss/Debate National Issues 22.6%, "Nuts and Bolts" Campaign Exper. 17.5%, Not from Washington/Future Cand. 16.1%, All of Choices (vol.) 7.4%, None of Choices (vol.) 2.8%, DK/Ref 5.8%
-12-

(Page 32)

GOPers SEE DEMOCRACTS AND CLINTON AS GREATEST THREATS
"In your opinion, who or what is the single greatest threat to the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: Bar graph with Democrats 7.8%, Bill Clinton 7.6%, Republicans 6.5%, Economy 4.1%, No Unity/Divisive 4%, Liberal Media 3%, Nothing/No Threat 2.9%, Liberals/Left Wing 2.8%, Too/Ultra Conserv. 2.6%, Ross Perot 2.5%
-13-

(Page 33)

ROSS PEROT COULD STEAL SOME REPUBLICANS
"If Ross Perot organized a third major national party, how likely is it that you would leave the Republican Party and join ross Perot's Independent party - very likely, only somewhat likely, not likely at all?"
Alt Text: Pie chart with not likely 53%, somewhat likely 26%, Very likely 17%, DK/Ref. 4%.
-14-

(Page 34)

GOPers WOULD LEAVE PARTY OVER SPENDING AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION
"The following are some reasons a person might leave the Republican Party. If each were true, tell me whether you would remain a Republican or would you leave the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: GOP Favored More Gov't Regulation Remain 47.6 Leave 40.8 GOP Supported Gay Rights Laws Remain 53.3 Leave 34.6 GOP Supported Military Cuts Remain 58.3 Leave 29.6 GOP Opposed Cutting Spending Remain 47.6 Leave 44.8 GOP Favored Abortion Rights Remain 66 Leave 26.3 GOP Favored Raising Taxes Remain 64.9 Leave 23.3
-15-

(Page 35)

GOPers CITE SPENDING, DEFICIT, BUDGET AND PERSONAL FREEDOM AS TOP PRIORITIES
"The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tell me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how you would rate each of the following?" (Questions Rotated)
"#1 - TOP PRIORITY" RESPONSES:
Alt Text: Bar Graph with Reduce ex-USSR Nuclear Weapons 50.1% Protect US from Mideast Terrorists 56.5% Promote Indiv. Liberty/Freedom 65.6% Strong National Defense 54.4% Support Vol. Public School Prayer 42.9% Eliminate Unnec. Govt. Regulations 43.9% Reduce Federal Bureaucracy 51% Promote Traditional Family Values 54.5% Free Cuba/Oust Fidel Castro 16.1% Reduce Federal Deficit 67.6% Balance Federal Budget 68.3% Reduce Business Taxes 24% Parent Choice for Child Education 39.5% Block Gay Rights Laws 20.6% Tougher Laws to Fight Crime 53% Reduce Personal Income Taxes 29% Prohibit Abortions 21.1% Affordable Health Care Solutions 46.3% Eliminate Wasteful Govt. Spending 78%.
-16-

(Page 36)

"The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tlel me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how would you rate each of the following?" (Questions Rotated)
MEAN RESPONSES:
Alt Text: Bar Graph with Reduce ex-USSR Nuclear Weapons 1.83 Protect US from Mideast Terrorists 1.74 Promote Indiv. Liberty/Freedom 1.57 Strong National Defense 1.72 Support Vol. Public School Prayer 2.34 Eliminate Unnec. Govt. Regulations 1.94 Reduce Federal Bureaucracy 1.8 Promote Traditional Family Values 1.91 Free Cuba/Oust Fidel Castro 3.52 Reduce Federal Deficit 1.58 Balance Federal Budget 1.53 Reduce Business Taxes 2.57 Parent Choice for Child Education 2.19 Block Gay Rights Laws 3.33 Tougher Laws to Fight Crime 1.84 Reduce Personal Income Taxes 2.5 Prohibit Abortions 3.47 Affordable Health Care Solutions 1.84 Eliminate Wasteful Govt. Spending 1.37.
-17-

(Page 37)

KEMP AND DOLE LEAD FRAGMENTED '96 FIELD
"From the following list, who is your first choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1996?" (Choices Rotated)
Alt Text: Bar Graph with Jack Kemp 21.6% Bob Dole 21.1% Jim Baker 11.3% Dan Quayle 10.3% Dick Cheney 6.1% Pat Buchanan 4% Pat Robertson 2.8% Phil Gramm 2.5% Other 1.6% William Weld 1.3% Pete DuPont 0.9% Bill Bennett 0.1% Undecided 16.5%

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KEY FINDINGS

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Key Findings:
· The future of the Republican Party will be determined by the future of the conservative movement. Conservatives in the Party outnumber liberals by a 4 to 1 ratio.
· Positive associations with conservatism far outweigh the negatives among Republicans.
· The Republican Party and it's conservative base are held together by an economic foundation opposed to government spending and waste.
· Social issue differences among Republicans appear to be a low priority. The overwhelming majority do not see their party being controlled by the religious right.
· There is a leadership vacuum within the Republican Party where over half the Republicans cannot cite their Party's leader and want a conservative spokesman to be Party Chairman.
· Ross Perot presents a serious threat to the future of the Republican Party. Four in 10 Republicans are to some degree likely to join a Perot Party.
· Pro-choice and pro-life positions among Republicans literally split the party in half. This makes it very unlikely that Republicans will be able to achieve consensus on this issue. For the time being, most Republicans will agree to disagree and focus on other issues of greater concern.

(Page 40)

· Reinforcing the Republican Party's economic conservative foundation, the largest majorities cite cutting wasteful government spending, balancing the budget, and reducing the deficit as their top priorities.
· Seven out of 10 Republicans favor tax breaks for health care reform over government-run national health care or forcing private businesses to provide insurance.
· Both former Presidents Bush and Reagan remain overwhelmingly popular with Republicans. Bob Dole and Dan Quayle are also perceived favorably by six in 10 Republicans. Jack Kemp has a very strong ratio of favorables to unfavorables as well. Phil Gramm and Bill Bennett are lesser known but are developing potential. Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson have gained serious negatives.
· In the early contest for President, Jack Kemp and Bob Dole are in a dead heat - with Kemp carrying conservatives and Dole the moderates. However, the field remains fragmented for a new face to emerge.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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SECTION #1: WHERE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS TODAY
The Republican Party remains solidly conservative with self- identified conservatives outnumbering liberals by a 4 to 1 margin. Total Liberals: 12.1%; Total Conservatives: 49.3%
Republican Ideology: Total
Liberal 4.1%
Somewhat Liberal 8.0%
Moderate 35.5%
Somewhat Conservative 31.3%
Very Conservative 18.0%
Don't Know/Refused 3.1%
When Republicans were asked for their associations with conservatism, the leading answers were overwhelmingly positive and issue-oriented. The largest share focused on conservative economic and value positions. Overall, almost half of the responses focused upon conservative values and economic principles such as "traditional values", "opposing government spending and waste", "fiscal principles", and "opposing taxes". Only one in 12 responded in the negative with "strict/narrow-minded", "no change". Abortion was cited by only 3.3% and the "Religious Right" by only 1.4%. Three in 10 Republicans had no leading association.
"When you think about conservatism and the conservative philosophy, what is the first thing that comes to mind?"
(Leading Responses) Total
Don't Know/Nothing 31.8%
Traditional Values 9.6%
Oppose Gov't Spending/Waste 9.5%
Oppose Big Gov't/For Less Gov't 3.5%
Strict/Narrow-minded 3.3%
No Change/Status Quo 3.3%
Economic/Fiscal Principles 3.3%
Common Sense/Thoughtful 3.1%
Oppose Taxes 2.9%
Fight Federal Deficit 2.4%
Individual Freedom 2.3%
Oppose Welfare Giveaways 2.3%
1

(Page 43)

When Republicans were asked from a specific set of issues which was personally most important to them, the economic issues of cutting taxes and waste and reducing unemployment far outweighed concerns for other domestic and defense issues. Only 6.5% of all Republicans said prohibiting abortion was their most important concern. Cutting waste mattered most to conservatives. Jobs seem to be more important to moderates and liberals.
"Which is personally most important to you?"

Total Lib Mod Cons
Cutting Taxes and Wasteful Gov’t Spending 25.6% 11.3% 22.5% 31.2%
Reducing Unemployment/ Getting Economy moving 15.5% 16.5% 19.0% 13.2%
Restoring Honesty to Gov’t 9.5% 10.3% 8.5% 10.4%
Improving Education 8.8% 9.3% 12.0% 6.6%
Fighting Crime and Drugs 7.8% 6.2% 7.4% 8.6%
Prohibiting Abortion 6.5% 4.1% 3.5% 9.1%
Providing Affordable Health Care 5.9% 12.4% 6.3% 3.8%
Protecting Social Security 5.6% 6.2% 7.7% 3.8%
Strengthening National Defense 4.6% 6.2% 2.8% 5.3%
Protecting the Environment 3.9% 12.4% 3.5% 2.0%
Don’t Know/Refused 6.4% 5.2% 6.7% 5.8%

The large majority of Republican voters became Republicans based upon the Party’s economic policies of less government and lower taxes. The second most important factor was foreign policy. Ironically, those issues which were cited in the media as dividing the Republican Party between morally conservative positions and more secular social issues positions matter least.
“Which aspect of the Republican philosophy most attracted you to the Party?”

Total Lib Mod Cons
Economic policies: Lower Taxes, Less Gov’t, Economic Growth 45.3% 40.2% 47.5% 45.2%
Social Policy: Death Penalty, Educational Choice 4.9 11.3 8.8 9.6
Moral Policies: Abortion, Anti-Gay Rights 11.9 14.4 7.7 14.7
Foreign Policy: Anti-Communism, Pro-Freedom 15.1 16.5 19.7 12.2
All (Volunteered) 10.3 9.3 6.3 13.2
None (Volunteered) 5.4 7.2 6.3 3.6
Don’t Know/Refused 2.3 1.0 3.5 1.5
2

(Page 44)

Reinforcing the Republicans' conservative foundation, when Republicans were asked what they like most about the Republican Party, roughly two-thirds cited an issue position whether general or specific. Once again, the positives of conservatism, particularly the number of economic responses, prove that conservatism is critical to future Republican success.
"What do you like most about the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)
Total
Don't Know/Refused/Nothing 17.4%
Conservative Issue Positions 14.6%
Issues/Views/Beliefs 11.8%
Good Job/Like Candidates 7.5%
Traditional Values 5.8%
Free Enterprise 4.0%
Oppose Big Gov't/For Less Gov't 3.6%
Oppose Taxes 3.6%
Foreign Policy 3.5%
Economic Issues 3.1%
Oppose Gov't Spending/Waste 3.0%
For People/Empowerment 2.9%
Successful 2.1%
Abortion/Pro-Life 2.0%
When Republicans were asked what they liked least about their party, one-third didn't know, while most of the remaining negatives could be grouped into categories of style and campaign tactics. One in six Republicans cited the typical scapegoats of abortion and being too conservative as a group as what they like least about their party.
"What do you like least about the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)
Total
Don't Know/Refused/Nothing 33.7%
For Rich 6.4%
Abortion/Pro-Life 5.6%
Too Conservative 4.6%
Bad Presidential Campaign 4.3%
Out-of-Touch With Middle-Class 2.9%
Need to Fight Democrats 2.4%
Scandals/Corruption 2.4%
Flip-Flops, Broken Promises 2.3%
The Economy 2.1%
Bad Candidates 2.0%
Budget Deficit 1.9%
3

(Page 45)

Three-quarters of all Republicans disagree with the statement that Pat Robertson and conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party. Only one in seven gave credence to that remark.
"Pat Robertson and conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party?"
Total Lib Mod Cons
Agree 13.9% 16.5% 15.5% 12.2%
Disagree 76.1% 63.9% 75.0% 80.5%
Don’t Know/Refused 10.0% 19.6% 9.5% 3.4%

With no apparent leader, the Republican Party appears to be extremely vulnerable to defections to a new political party if Ross Perot creates a third national party.
Overall, four in 10 Republicans claim they would be "likely" to join a Perot Party with one in six Republicans saying they are "very likely" to leave the Republican Party for Perot.
These defections are potentially highest among liberal Republicans, those concerned with unemployment, those who favor unrestricted abortions and those attracted to the Republican Party on social issues.
"If Ross Perot organized a third major national party, how likely is it that you would leave the Republican Party and join Ross Perot's Independent Party?"

Total Lib Mod Cons Unemp. Econ. Unres. Choice Social Policies
Very likely 16.6% 27.8% 14.8% 14.2% 24.2% 22.4% 25.3%
Somewhat Likely 26.5% 32.0% 31.7% 32.6% 25.8% 28.9% 34.2%
Not Likely 53.0% 36.1% 50.0% 60.4% 46.0% 45.8% 38.0%
Don’t Know/Ref. 3.9% 4.1% 3.5% 3.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%

When Republicans were asked what trait or characteristic they prefer to see in the Party's next chairman, the desire for leadership becomes apparent again. Republicans decidedly would prefer a conservative spokesman who could discuss and debate issues in the national arena rather than a nuts and bolts tactician.
4

(Page 46)

"In January, the members of the Republican National Committee will choose a new Chairman who will run the Party for the next two years. In your opinion, which of the following traits or characteristics is most important for this new Chairman to have?"
Total
1. Will uphold the Republican Party's conservative positions 27.9%
2. Can discuss and debate national issues in the media 22.6%
3. Have "nuts and bolts" grassroots campaign experience 17.5%
4. Is not connected to the Washington establishment or any future presidential candidate 16.1%
5. All of the above (Volunteered) 7.4%
6. None of the above (Volunteered) 2.8%
7. Don't Know/Refused 5.8%
The polarization on abortion as a single issue becomes very clear when Republican voters were asked to describe their own personal position. Republicans were almost equally divided between generally pro-choice and pro-life positions. Such a political equilibrium on an issue which is tied to ideology explains why Republicans are having trouble building a consensus position on this issue.
"Which of the following comes closest to your opinion regarding the issue of abortion?"

Total Lib Mod Cons
A woman should have an unrestricted right to choose to have an abortion at any time 25.1% 36.1% 28.9% 19.0%
A woman should have the right to choose an abortion for any reason within the first 3 months of pregnancy 26.4% 35.1% 33.1% 19.3%
Abortion should only be permitted in case of rape, incest or to protect the health of the mother 27.4% 18.6% 22.5% 32.7%
Abortion should only be permitted to save the life of the mother 11.4% 5.2% 6.7% 17.8%
Abortion should not be permitted under any circumstances 6.6% 4.1% 6.0% 8.1%
Don’t know/Refused 2.6% 1.0% 2.8% 3.0%
5

(Page 47)

When Republicans were asked to rate their leaders, former Presidents Bush and Reagan are very popular and still hold the overwhelming good will of their Party. Bob Dole, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle are top tier leaders who could use their popularity to build consensus. Both Dole and Kemp have very good ratios of favorables to unfavorable, while Quayle has somewhat higher negatives. Bill Bennett and Phil Gramm have the potential to broaden their popularity.
Jim Baker, Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson appear to be too polarizing with substantial negatives to unite the party without changing current perceptions.
Bill Clinton is generally disliked by Republicans while Ross Perot remains a threat by maintaining high favorables among Republicans.
Media celebrity Rush Limbaugh is recognized by 3 of every 4 Republicans and is well liked with a 2 to 1 positive to negative ratio.
Net Popular Rating Scale Fav Unfav No Opinion Never Heard Of Net Rating
George Bush 85.6% 9.6% 4.8% - +76.0%
Ronald Reagan 73.1% 16.9% 9.8% 0.3% +56.2%
Bob Dole 62.1% 10.4% 21.8% 5.8% +51.7%
Jack Kemp 44.8% 9.9% 32.3% 12.1% +34.9%
Dan Quayle 60.1% 25.3% 14.0% 0.6% +34.8%
Rush Limbaugh 34.0% 17.1% 23.8% 25.1% 16.9%
Ross Perot 44.5% 32.3% 2.6% 0.6% +12.2%
Bill Bennett 17.1% 6.8% 28.4% 47.8% +10.3%
Phil Gramm 21.5% 10.6% 29.4% 37.5% +9.9%
Jim Baker 40.0% 37.8% 18.6% 3.6% +2.2%
Pat Buchanan 32.6% 34.9% 27.6% 4.9% -2.3%
Bill Clinton 31.1% 42.6% 26.3% - -11.5%
Pat Robertson 27.6% 39.6% 24.0% 8.8% -12.0%
6

(Page 48)

SECTION #2: THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND THE FUTURE
Whatever can be said of the Republican Party's current liabilities, it has far many more assets which should give the Party hope and optimism.
On the issues, it is extremely clear that Republicans are strongly united by their fiscal conservatism and belief in individual liberty. If there is a revolt coming against excessive government spending in the 90's as the tax revolt came in the 70's, Republicans appear to be in a strong position to lead that change.
When we asked Republicans to rate their top priority among 19 issues, it is clear that there is a lot more to unite Republicans than divide them. The following table shows the percentage of Republicans who, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 being a top priority, rated that issue stand as a top priority. 0
"The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tell me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how you would rate each of the following? (Rotate questions)"
Issues Ranking by Percentage as Top Priority Total Cons Unemp Econ Unres. Choice Perot V/L Social Policy
Eliminate Wasteful Gov’t Spending 78.0% 78.2% 79.0% 79.1% 83.5% 72.2%
Balance the Federal Budget 68.3% 66.5% 68.5% 70.1% 74.4% 62.0%
Reduce the Federal Deficit 67.6% 65.2% 68.5% 70.6% 74.4% 67.1%
Promote Individual Freedom and Liberty 65.6% 67.5% 62.1% 72.6% 67.7% 60.8%
Protect America from MidEast terrorists 56.5% 56.3% 48.4% 56.2% 59.4% 50.6%
Promote Traditional Family Values 54.5% 62.2% 49.2% 45.3% 52.6% 59.5%
Maintain a Strong Nat’l Defense 54.4% 61.9% 42.7% 47.8% 48.9% 53.2%
Enact Tougher Laws to Fight Crime 53.0% 52.8% 47.6% 51.7% 60.2% 53.2%
7
(Page 49)

-TABLE CONTINUED-
Issue Ranking by Percentage as Top Priority Total Cons Unemp. Econ. Unres. Choice Perot V/L Social Policy
Reduce the Size of the Federal Bureaucracy 51.0% 54.1% 42.7% 48.3% 57.1% 48.1%
Reduce Soviet Nuclear Weapons 50.1% 50.8% 49.2% 47.8% 51.1% 51.9%
Find Solution to Provide Affordable Health Care 46.3% 41.6% 57.3% 45.3% 54.9% 53.2%
Eliminate Unnecessary Federal Regulations 43.9% 49.5% 37.9% 46.3% 41.4% 41.8%
Support Voluntary Prayer in Public Schools 42.9% 50.0% 29.8% 30.8% 47.4% 46.8%
Promote Parental Choice for Children’s Education 39.5% 44.4% 33.1% 41.3% 41.5% 46.8%
Reduce Personal Income Taxes 29.0% 30.5% 24.2% 25.9% 30.1% 29.1%
Reduce Business Taxes 24.0% 26.4% 24.2% 21.9% 31.6% 24.1%
Prohibit Abortion 21.1% 26.6% 17.7% 4.5% 18.8% 22.8%
Block Gay Rights Laws 20.6% 29.4% 12.9% 10.4% 21.8% 24.1%
Free Cuba from Communism by Fidel Castro 16.1% 14.0% 16.1% 12.9% 18.8% 20.3%
8

(Page 50)

If Republicans do not view their own conservatism as a serious problem then what do they see as their greatest threat? It can be summed up in two words - "Liberal Democrats". When Republicans were asked to cite the single greatest threat to the Republican Party, roughly one-quarter cited liberal Democrats, Bill Clinton, etc. Another one in five cited campaign and tactical considerations - for example, "party insiders", "disunity", and "no leadership". Only 6.8% gave answers which cited "too conservative", religious right", "Pat Robertson", "abortion", etc.
"In your opinion, who or what is the single greatest threat to the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)
Total
Don't Know/Refused/Nothing 30.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.8%
Bill Clinton 7.6%
Republican Insiders 6.5%
Economic Problems 4.1%
No Unity/Disorganized 4.0%
Liberal Media 3.0%
Liberals/Left Wing 2.8%
Too Conservative 2.6%
Ross Perot 2.5%
out-of-Touch With Middle-Class 2.1%
Deficit 1.9%
No Leadership 1.9%
Religious Right 1.6%
Not Fight for Conservatives 1.6%
Liberal Republicans 1.5%
Liberals in Congress 1.4%
On a series of controversial issue positions, if the Republican Party were to change this stand, we asked Republican voters if they would leave their party. Ironically, this table of the percentages of those who would leave the party shows that George Bush compromised on the most damaging issue of spending with the 1990 Budget Act but he held firm on abortion, which appears to be the least damaging of the set.
Among those who were concerned about those groups which helped the Democrats pick the GOP's "electoral lock" - those concerned with unemployment, very likely to join a Perot party, and social policy Republicans - the spending issue was most important while abortion became less important as a reason to be a Republican.
9

(Page 51)

“Would you remain a Republica or would you leave the Party if you knew the Republican Party…”
Percentage would leave party:

Total Unemp. Econ. Perot Very Likely Social Policies
Opposed Cutting Wasteful Government Spending 44.8% 50.0% 51.1% 58.2%
Favored more gov’t regulation 40.8% 43.5% 43.6% 45.6%
Supported Gay Rights Laws 34.6% 25.0% 33.1% 40.5%
Supported a Drastic Cut in the Military 29.6% 27.4% 33.8% 27.8%
Favored Raising Taxes 26.3% 19.4% 24.8% 21.5%
Supported Abortion Rights 23.3% 30.6% 27.1% 21.5%

Over one-half of the Republicans polled had no idea who is now the leader of the Republican Party. Among those who did cite a leader, Bob Dole was named by roughly one-fourth of those polled. Jack Kemp was second being cited by about one in 10 Republicans. In all, 17 different leaders were cited. All of the responses were men, which may help explain why more Republican women did not cite a leader.
"With President Bush leaving office, who in your opinion is now the leader of the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)

Total Men Women
Don’t Know/Refused/No Leader 52.5% 43.2% 61.6%
Bob Dole 23.6% 26.8% 20.5%
Jack Kemp 9.3% 12.6% 5.9%
Jim Baker 4.4% 4.5% 4.2%
(Still) George Bush 4.4% 5.1% 3.7%
Dan Quayle 2.4% 2.8% 2.0%
Pat Buchanan 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Ronald Reagan 0.5% 0.1% -
Rush Limbaugh 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Phil Gramm 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%

On the Clinton Democrats top issue, the vast majority of Republicans favor health care reform which cuts taxes for individuals and families. With this kind of strong consensus, Republicans should be able to promote a health care proposal with tax credits for health insurance and medical expenses which would draw strong popular support.
10

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"There are three basic proposals being suggested to reform our health care system, please tell me which of these proposals you favor most?"
Total
1. A system where private businesses would be forced by law to provide coverage for all its employees regardless of the cost 9.0%
2. A gov't run nat'l health care system which would be funded by establishing a nat'l sales tax and increasing income taxes 12.0%
3. Reforming the current system by making it more affordable by creating more tax breaks for individuals and families wishing to purchase health care 71.3%
4. Maintain current system (Volunteered) 2.1%
5. Don't Know/Refused 5.6%
When Republicans were asked about their 1996 choice to run for President, no single Republican has captured the passion and support of the Party's rank and file. Jack Kemp and Bob Dole are the front- runners. For Kemp, this is a very good sign considering the higher favorable ratings of Dole and Quayle. James Baker and Dan Quayle are in double digits, but the field is well-fragmented where a brand new leader could siphon support from the others.
Within the party's ideological dynamics, Kemp is already well- positioned with conservatives while Dole leads among the moderates and liberals.
"From the following list, who is your first choice for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 1996?"
Total Lib Mod Cons
Jack Kemp 21.6 10.3 20.8 25.1
Bob Dole 21.1 23.7 24.3 18.5
James Baker 11.3 12.4 13.4 9.4
Dan Quayle 10.3 12.4 7.7 11.7
Dick Cheney 6.1 4.1 7.0 6.3
Pat Buchanan 4.0 4.1 2.1 5.1
Pat Robertson 2.8 4.1 1.8 3.3
Phil Gramm 2.5 1.0 2.1 3.3
Bill Weld 1.3 0.0 2.1 1.0
Pete DuPont 0.9 0.0 1.4 0.8
Bill Bennett 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
Other 1.6 0.0 2.5 1.0
Undecided 16.5 27.8 14.8 14.2
11

(Page 53)

KEY DEMOGRAPHICS
Education:
Total
Less Than High School Graduate 5.3%
High School Graduate 28.1%
Some College 27.1%
College Graduate 27.5%
Post Graduate 11.1%
Don't Know/Refused 0.9%

Household Income:
Total
Under $20,000 14.5%
Between $20,001 & $40,000 28.5%
Between $40,001 & $60,000 22.4%
Over $60,000 20.4%
Don't Know/Refused 14.3%

Ancestry:
Total
German 23.9%
Polish 13.5%
Italian 15.8%
European/English 24.9%
Russian 0.6%
Irish 14.6%
French/French Canadian 3.4%
Puerto Rican/Hispanic 1.5%
Greek 0.4%
African/American 1.5%
Don't Know/Refused 0.0%

Religion:
Total
Fundamentalist Protestant 11.0%
Evangelical Protestant 8.9%
Mainstream Protestant 45.8%
Catholic 26.1%
Jewish 0.9%
Atheist/Agnostic 1.9%
Don't Know/Refused 5.5%

Race:
Total
Hispanic 1.6%
African/American 1.6%
White 93.9%
Other 1.3%
Refused 1.6%
12

(Page 54)

Age:
Total
18-25 8.3%
26-40 32.9%
41-55 26.1%
56-65 11.8%
Over 65 19.8%
Refused 1.3%

Gender:
Total
Male 49.5%
Female 50.5%

Region:
Total
New England 6.3%
Middle Atlantic 15.5%
East North Central 18.5%
West North Central 8.5%
South Atlantic 15.8%
East South Central 5.6%
West South Central 9.8%
Mountain 5.5%
Pacific 14.6%
13

(Page 55)

Sen Dole
Dirksen Bldg
YEAS
NAYS
Bennett
Bond
Brown
Burns (illegible)
Chafee (illegible
Coats
Cochran
Cohen
Coverdell
Craig
D'Amato
Danforth
Dole
Domenici
Durenberger
Faircloth
Gorton
Gramm
Grassley
Gregg
Hatch
Hatfield
Helms
Jeffords Call her
Kassebaum
Kempthorne
Lott
Lugar
Mack
McCain
McConnell
Murkowski
Nickles
Packwood
Pressler
Roth
Simpson
Smith
Specter
Stevens
Thurmond
Wallop
Warner

(illegible) 3/1/93 3/1/93
(Printed by the Republican Secretary)
GPO: 1992 61-192 (m)

(Page 56)

Sen. Dole
Russell Bdlg
YEAS
NAYS
Bennett
Bond
Brown
Burns
Chafee
Coats
Cochran
Cohen
Coverdell
Craig
D'Amato
Danforth
Dole
Domenici
Durenberger C. Thomas
Faircloth
Gorton
Gramm
Grassley
Gregg
Hatch Kendra (illegible)
Hatfield
Helms
Jeffords
Kassebaum
Kempthorne
Lott M. Reilly
Lugar
Mack
McCain
McConnell
Murkowski
Nickles
Packwood
Pressler
Roth
Simpson
Smith
Specter
Stevens
Thurmond
Wallop S. Sherwood
Warner
(Printed by the Republican Secretary)
3/1/93
GPO: 1992 61-192 (m)

(Page 57)

Sen. Dole
HART Bldg
YEAS
NAYS
Bennett
Bond
Brown
Burns
Chafee
Coats
Cochran
Cohen
Coverdell
Craig
D'Amato
Danforth
Dole
Domenici
Durenberger
Faircloth
Gorton K Hanson
Gramm
Grassley
Gregg
Hatch
Hatfield
Helms
Jeffords
Kassebaum
Kempthorne
Lott
Lugar
Mack (illegible)
McCain
McConnell
Murkowski
Nickles
Packwood
Pressler
Roth (illegible)
Simpson
Smith
Specter
Stevens
Thurmond
Wallop
Warner
Michelle Heming
(Printed by the Republican Secretary)
3/1/93.
GPO: 1992 61-192 (m)
(Page 1)

TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 1993
8:30 A.M. - S-230
CLASS OF '94
Dole Lott Chafee Hatch - will be late Lugar Roth - will be late Wallop Burns Durenberger Gorton Jeffords Mack
Tony Fabrizio - will attend for about 15 to 20 minutes Senator Danforth has a conflict and can't make it.
Do you want any staff to sit in?
Yes no
Jo Ann Shiela whit

(Page 2)

FEB 08'93 12:27 No.002 P.02
ID:202-408-5117
BOB DOLE
February 8, 1993
MEMORANDUM TO THE LEADER
FROM: SUZANNE NIEMELA
THROUGH : JO-ANNE COE
RE: BREAKFAST WITH FABRIZIO/SENATORS
Tony Fabrizio called me to express your interest in setting up a breakfast meeting between yourself, Tony Fabrizio and other GOP Senators to go over the recent polling figures. From your conversation with Tony we assume you would like the following to attend: (R)
Class of '94
Freshman Senators .
[illegible]
If there are others whom you would like to invite, please advise.
For your information, we have copies of the poll at Campaign America and have sent copies to the class of 1994.
Shall I schedule a breakfast with Yvonne? I understand this would be after the recess.
YES (Checkmark)
NO
Joyce is [illegible]
15 minutes
Tues. Feb., 23, 1993 8:15 a.m.

(Page 3)

Tues. Feb, 23, 1993 815 8-a.m.
TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 1993 8:30 A.M. - S-230 CLASS OF '94
Dole Burns Chafee Durenberger Gorton - late Hatch - will be late Jeffords Lott Lugar Mack Roth - will be late Wallop
Tony Fabrizio will join the group at 9:00 a.m.
Sheila Whit Jo-Anne

(Page 4)
SUBJECT: Class of `94
DATE: Tues., March 2
TIME: 8:30 am
LOCATION: S-230
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP
Senator
Position
Invited
Yes
No
Cochran
Conference

Dole
Republican Leader
(Checkmark)
(Checkmark)

Gramm
Senatorial Committee

Lott
Conference Secretary
(Checkmark)
(Checkmark)

Nickles
Policy Chairman

Simpson
Asst. Republican Leader

RANKING COMMITTEE MEMBERS
Senator
Committee
Invited
Yes
No
Chafee
Environment
(Checkmark)
(Checkmark)

Cohen
Special Aging

Danforth
Commerce
(Checkmark)

(Checkmark)?
Domenici
Budget

D'Amato
Banking

Hatfield
Appropriations

Hatch
Judiciary
(Checkmark)
Late

Helms
Foreign Relations

Kassebaum
labor

Lugar
Agriculture
(Checkmark)
(Checkmark)

McCain
Select - Indian affairs

McConnell
Ethics

Murkowski
Veterans' Affairs
(Checkmark)
(Checkmark)
Will be late
Packwood
Finance

Pressler
Small Business

Roth
Gov't Affairs & Jt. Econ

Stevens
Rules & Administration

Thurmond
Armed Services

Wallop
Energy

Warner
Intelligence

REPUBLICANS
Bennet
Gorton
Bond
Grassley
Brown
Gregg
Burns
Jeffords
Coats
Kempthorne
Coverdell
Mack
Craig
Smith
Durenberger
Specter
Faircloth

DEMOCRATS
Akaka
Kerrey
Baucus
Kerry
Biden
Kohl
Bingaman
Krueger
Boren
Lautenberg
Boxer
Leahy
Bradley
Levin
Breaux
Lieberman
Bryan
Mathews
Bumpers
Metzenbaum
Byrd
Mikulski
Campbell
Mitchell
Conrad
Moseley-Braun
Daschle
Moynihan
DeConcini
Murray
Dodd
Nunn
Dorgan
Pell
Exon
Pryor
Feingold
Reid
Feinstein
Riegle
Ford
Robb
Glenn
Rockefeller
Graham
Sarbanes
Harkin
Sasser
Heflin
Shelby
Hollings
Simon
Inouye
Wellstone
Johnston
Wofford
Kennedy

OTHERS:
Tony Fabrizio
PF.020

(Page 5)

Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates
NATIONAL STUDY OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS
CONDUCTED BY FABRIZIO, MCLAUGHLIN AND ASSOCIATES JANUARY, 1993
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. (703) 684-4510 FAX (703) 739-0664
801 North Fairfax Street - Suite 312 - Alexandria, Virginia 22314

(Page 6)

CONTENTS
. BACKGROUND
. METHODOLOGY
. QUESTIONNAIRE AND TOP LINE DATA
. DATA OVERVIEW
. KEY FINDINGS
· EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND DEMOGRAPHICS

(Page 7)

BACKGROUND
Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates is a nationally recognized polling firm specializing in providing survey research to Republican candidates and organizations across the nation. In 1992, the firm's clients included the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, Senator Lauch Faircloth (NC), Senator Robert Bennett (UT), Congressmen Ben Gilman, Tom Bliley, Rick Lazio, Bill Goodling and Peter King to name a few. In the past, Tony Fabrizio and John Mclaughlin have worked for Senators Al D'Amato (NY), Bob Dole (KS), Jesse Helms (NC), Gordon Humphrey (NH), Connie Mack (FL) and Don Nickles (OK) among others.
This study was commissioned by the firm to get a better understanding of the Republican Party in the post Bush and Reagan eras. Determining how Republicans currently feel about their party, their opinions on the issues perceived to divide the party and the issues they believe the party should focus on in the future were central in constructing this study. The main goals of this study are to provide the party leadership with a blueprint for reconstructing our winning electoral majority, debunking several commonly held myths about Republican beliefs and determining key issues to unite all factions of our party in the future.

(Page 8)

Methodology
This survey of political attitudes was conducted exclusively among Republican voters nationally between January 4th through 7th, 1993, by Fabrizio, Mclaughlin and Associates. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professionally trained interviewers. Respondents were screened for party affiliation, and interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with the actual voter distribution of the 1992 Presidential election. This survey of 800 Republican voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.46% at the 95% confidence interval.

(Page 9)

QUESTIONNAIRE AND TOP LINE DATA

(Page 10)

Fabrizio Mclaughlin & Associates
FABRIZIO, MCLAUGHLIN & ASSOCIATES NATIONAL SURVEY OF REPUBLICANS JANUARY, 1993
N = 800 REPUBLICAN VOTERS NATIONALLY
Introduction: Good evening. My name is and I'm calling from Fabrizio, Mclaughlin & Associates, a national public opinion firm. This evening we're conducting a short political survey and we'd like to get your opinions.
Did you vote in November's Presidential election?
1. Yes (Continue) 2. No/All other responses (Terminate)
With which political party are you affiliated?
1. Republican (Continue) 2. Democrat (Terminate)
3. Independent (Terminate) 4. Other (Terminate)
5. DK/Refused (Terminate)
If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a Liberal, a Moderate, or a Conservative in your political beliefs? (If said Liberal or Conservative - ask: "And would that be very liberal/conservative or only somewhat liberal/conservative?")
1. Very Liberal (4.1%)
2. Somewhat Liberal (8.0%)
Combo Liberal (12.1%)
3. Moderate (35.5%)
4. Somewhat Conservative (31.3%)
5. Very Conservative (18.0%)
Combo Conservative (49.3%)
6. DK/Refused (3.1%)
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. · (703) 684-4510 - FAX (703) 739-0664 801 North Fairfax Street · Suite 312 · Alexandria, Virginia 22314

(Page 11)

When you think about Conservatism and the Conservative philosophy, what is the first thing that comes to mind?
1. Traditional values 9.6%
2. Oppose gov't spending/waste 9.5%
3. Oppose big gov't spending/waste 3.5%
4. Strict/narrow minded 3.3%
5. No change/status quo/establishment 3.3%
6. Economic/fiscal principles 3.3%
7. Abortion/pro-life 3.3%
8. Common sense/thoughtful/reasonable 3. 1%
9. Oppose taxes/favor low taxes 2.9%
10. Fight/oppose budget deficit 2. 4%
Now I am going to read you a list of names. Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each? If you have no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say so.

Favorable
Unfavorable
No Opinion
Never Heard of
George Bush
85.6%
9.6%
4.8%
-
Bill Clinton
31.1%
42.6%
26.3%
-
Ronald Reagan
73.1%
16.9%
9.8%
0.3%
Ross Perot
44.5%
32.3%
22.6%
0.6%
Jack Kemp
44.8%
9.9%
32.3%
13.1%
Dan Quayle
60.1%
25.3%
14.0%
0.6%
Pat Robertson
27.6%
39.6%
24.0%
8.8%
Bill Bennett
17.1%
6.8%
28.4%
47.8%
Bob Dole
62.1%
10.4%
21.8%
5.8%
Phil Gramm
21.5%
10.6%
29.4%
38.5%
Pat Buchanan
32.6%
34.9%
27.6%
4.9%
Rush Limbaugh
34.0%
17.1%
23.8%
25.1%

What do you like most about the Republican Party?
1. Conservative views/issues/positions 14.6%
2. Issues/views/positions/beliefs 11.8%
3. Good job/like/candidates 7.5%
4. Traditional morals/values 5.8%
5. Free enterprise/capitalism/pro-business 4.0%
6. Oppose big gov't/for less gov't 3.6%
7. Oppose taxes 3.6%
8. Foreign policy 3.5%
9. Economic issues/principles 3.1%
10. Oppose gov't spending/waste 3.0%

(Page 12)

What do you like least about the Republican Party?
1. For wealthy/rich 6.4%
2. Abortion stand/pro-life 5.6%
3. Too/ultra conservative 4.6%
4. Bad presidential campaign/didn't fight back 4.3%
5. Out of touch with middle class 2.9%
6. Need to fight for Republican issues/stand
up to Democrats 2.9%
7. Scandal/corruption 2.4%
8. Flip-flops/broken promises 2.3%
9. The economy/economic policies 2.1%
10. Some bad candidates 2.0%

There are three basic proposals being suggested to reform our health care system, please tell me which of these proposals you favor most?
1. A system where private businesses would be forced by law to provide coverage for all its employees regardless of the cost (9.0%)
2. A government-run national health care system which would be funded by establishing a national sales tax and increasing income taxes, or (12.0%)
3. Reforming the current system by making it more affordable by creating more tax breaks for individuals and families wishing to purchase health care (71.3%)
4. Maintain the current system (Volunteered) (2.1%)
5. DK/Refused (5.6%)

From the following list, which issue is personally most important to you? (Rotate choices)
1. Cutting taxes and wasteful government spending (25.6%)
2. Reducing unemployment and getting our economy moving (15.5%)
3. Restoring honesty to government (9.5%)
4. Improving education (8.8%)
5. Fighting crime and drugs (7.8%)
6. Prohibiting abortion (6.5%)
7. Providing affordable health care (5.9%)
8. Protecting social security (5.6%)
9. Strengthening national defense and keeping our Country safe from war (4.6%)
10. Protecting the environment (3.9%)
11. Don't Know/Refused (6.4%)

(Page 13)

Which of the following comes closest to your opinion regarding the issue of abortion?
1. A woman should have an unrestricted right to choose to have an abortion at any time (25.1%)
2. A woman should have the right to choose an abortion for any reason within the first three months of pregnancy (26.4%)
3. Abortion should only be permitted in the case of rape, incest, or to protect the health of the mother (27.4%)
4. Abortion should only be permitted to save the life of the mother (11.4%)
5. Abortion should not be permitted under any circumstances (6.6%)
6. DK/Refused (2.6%)

If Ross Perot organized a third major national party, how likely is it that you would leave the Republican Party and join Ross Perot's Independent party - very likely, only somewhat likely, not likely at all?
1. Very likely (16.6%)
2. Somewhat likely (26.5%)
3. Not likely (53.0%)
4. DK/Refused (3.9%)

With President Bush leaving office, who in your opinion is now the leader of the Republican Party?
1. Bob Dole 23.6%
2. Jack Kemp 9.3%
3. None/no leader 6.6%
4. Jim Baker 4.4%
5. (Still) George Bush 4.4%
6. Dan Quayle 2.4%
7. Pat Buchanan 0.8%
8. Ronald Reagan 0.5%
9. Rush Limbaugh 0.4%
10. Phil Gramm 0.4%
Think for a moment about which aspect of Republican philosophy most attracted you to the party - was it economic policies such as support for lower taxes, less government spending and economic growth; social policies such as support for the death penalty and educational choice; moral policies such as opposition to abortion and gay rights or foreign policy such as opposition to communism and support of pro-freedom movements around the world?
1. Economic Policies (45.3%)
2. Social Policies (9.9%)
3. Moral Policies (11.9%)
4. Foreign Policies (15.1%)
5. All of the Above (Volunteered) (10.3%)
6. None of the above/other reasons (Volunteered) (5.4%)
7. DK/Refused (2.3%)

(Page 14)

In your opinion, who or what is the single greatest threat to the Republican Party?
1. Democrats (General) /liberal Democrats 7.8%
2. Bill Clinton 7.6%
3. Republicans/themselves 6.5%
4. Economy/current economic problems 4.1%
5. No unity/disorganized/divisiveness 4.0%
6. Liberal media 3.0%
7. Nothing/no threat 2.9%
8. Liberals/left wing/ultra liberals 2.8%
9. Too/ultra conservative 2.6%
10. Ross Perot 2.5%

From the following list, who is your first choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1996? (Rotate choices)
1. Jack Kemp 21.6%
2. Bob Dole 21.1%
3. Jim Baker 11.3%
4. Dan Quayle 10.3%
5. Dick Cheney 6.1%
6. Pat Buchanan 4.0%
7. Pat Robertson 2.8%
8. Phil Gramm 2.5%
9. Other 1.6%
10. William Weld 1.3%
11. Pete DuPont 0.9%
12. Bill Bennett 0.1%
13. Undecided 16.5%

Now from the same list who would be your second choice? (Rotate choices)
1. Bob Dole 18.4%
2. Jack Kemp 11.6%
3. Dan Quayle 8.0%
4. Dick Cheney 7.6%
5. Jim Baker 7.4%
6. Pat Buchanan 5.0%
7. Phil Gramm 3.6%
8. Bill Bennett 3.3%
9. Pat Robertson 2.4%
10. Pete Dupont 1.1%
11. William Weld 0.6%
12. Other 0.6%
13. Undecided 14.4%

(Page 15)

In January, the members of the Republican National Committee will choose a new chairman who will run the Party for the next two years. In your opinion, which of the following traits or characteristics is most important for this new Chairman to have? (Rotate choices)
1. Will uphold the Republican Party's conservative positions (27.9%)
2. Can discuss and debate national issues in the media (22.6%)
3. Have "nuts and bolts" grassroots campaign experience (17.5%)
4. Is not connected to the Washington establishment or any future Presidential candidate (16.1%)
5. All of the above (Volunteered) (7.4%)
6. None of the above (Volunteered) (2.8%)
7. Don't Know/Refused (5.8%)
The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tell me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how you would rate each of the following? (Rotate questions)

Top Priority

Not Priority at All

1
2
3
4
5
DK/Ref.
Mean
Eliminate Wasteful government spending
78.0%
11.6%
6.3%
1.9%
1.8%
0.5%
1.37
Find solutions to provide affordable health care
46.3%
30.6%
15.5%
3.1%
2.9%
1.6%
1.84
Prohibit abortion
21.1%
10.5%
13.9%
7.5%
45.8%
1.3%
3.47
Reduce personal income taxes
29.0%
19.1%
32.0%
10.3%
8.5%
1.1%
2.50
Enact tougher laws to fight crime
53.0%
21.4%
15.5%
5.5%
3.6%
1.0%
1.84
Block gay rights laws
20.6%
9.9%
19.4%
9.6%
36.5%
4.0%
3.33
Promote parental choice for their children's education
39.5%
23.6%
20.3%
7.8%
7.5%
1.4%
2.19
Reduce business taxes
24.0%
24.8%
27.6%
9.4%
11.0%
3.3%
2.57
Balance the federal budget
68.3%
17.9%
7.9%
2.5%
2.9%
0.6%
1.53
Reduce the federal deficit
67.6%
16.3%
8.3%
2.9%
3.9%
1.1%
1.58
Free Cuba from Communism by ousting Fidel Castro
16.1%
8.4%
16.8%
18.6%
36.8%
2.4%
3.52
Promote traditional family values
54.5%
19.4%
12.4%
5.5%
7.4%
0.9%
1.91
Reduce the size of federal bureaucracy
51.0%
25.0%
16.4%
3.1%
2.8%
1.8%
1.80

(Page 16)

Continued
Eliminate unnecessary federal regulations
43.9%
28.5%
18.0%
4.3%
3.8%
1.6%
1.94
Support voluntary prayer in schools
42.9%
15.9%
18.1%
8.0%
14.1%
1.0%
2.34
Maintain a strong national defense
54.4%
24.4%
16.1%
2.6%
1.6%
0.9%
1.72
Promote individual freedom and liberty
65.6%
16.5%
11.9%
2.3%
2.4%
1.4%
1.57
Protect America from Mideast terrorists
56.5%
20.6%
16.0%
3.3%
2.6%
1.0%
1.74
Make sure nuclear weapons within the Nations of the former Soviet Union are reduced or eliminated
50.1%
25.9%
16.3%
3.5%
3.4%
0.9%
1.83

The following are some reasons a person might leave the Republican Party. If each were true, tell me whether you would remain a Republican or would you leave the Republican Party?

Leave Party
Remain Repub.
Unsure (Volt'rd)
DK/refused
The Republican Party favored raising taxes
23.3%
64.9%
10.3%
1.6%
The Republican Party supported abortion rights
26.3%
66.0%
6.4%
1.4%
The Republican Party opposed cutting wasteful federal spending
44.8%
47.6%
6.1%
1.5%
The Republican party supported a drastic cut in the military
29.6%
58.3%
9.5%
2.6%
The Republican Party supported gay rights laws
34.6%
53.3%
8.9%
3.3%
The Republican Party favored more government regulation
40.8%
47.6%
9.8%
1.9%

(Page 17)

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following. (Rotate Choices)

Agree
Disagree
DK/ Refused
President Bush lost the election because he broke his "no new taxes" pledge and raised taxes
20.3%
76.9%
2.9%
Pat Robertson and Conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party
13.9%
76.1%
10.0%

What is the last grade of formal education you have completed?
1. Less than high school graduate (5.3%)
2. High school graduate (28.1%)
3. Some College (27.1%)
4. College graduate (27.5%)
5. Post graduate (11.1%)
6. Don't Know/Refused (0.9%)

What is your annual family income - Is it under $20, 000, between $20,001 & $40,000, between $40,001 & $60,000, or over $60,000?
1. Under $20,000 (14.5%)
2. Between $20,001 & $40,000 (28.5%)
3. Between $40,001 & $60,000 (22.4%)
4. Over $60,000 (20.4%)
5. Don't Know/Refused (14.3%)
MEAN = 43.72

What is your national ancestry other than American?
1. German (23.9%)
2. Polish (13.5%)
3. Italian (15.8%)
4. European/English (24.9%)
5. Russian (0.6%)
6. Irish (14.6%)
7. French/French Canadian (3.4%)
8. Puerto Rican/Hispanic (1.5%)
9. Greek (0.4%)
10. African/American (1.5%)
11. DK/Refused (0.0%)

(Page 18)

What is your religion?
1. Fundamentalist Protestant (11.0%)
2. Evangelical Protestant (8.9%)
3. Mainstream Protestant (45.8%)
4. Catholic (26.1%)
5. Jewish (0.9%)
6. Atheist/Agnostic (1.9%)
7. Don't Know/Refused (5.5%)

What is your race?
1. Hispanic (1.6%)
2. African American (1.6%)
3. White (93.9%)
4. Other (1.3%)
5. Refused (1.6%)
What is your age?
1. 18-25 (8.3%)
2. 26-40 (32.9%)
3. 41-55 (26.1%)
4. 56-65 (11.8%)
5. Over 65 (19.8%)
6. Refused (1.3%)
MEAN = 47.18
Gender:
1. Male (49.5%)
2. Female (50.5%)
Area:
1. New England (6.3%)
2. Middle Atlantic (15.5%)
3. East North Central (18.5%)
4. West North Central (8.5%)
5. South Atlantic (15.8%)
6. East South Central (5.6%)
7. West South Central (9.8%)
8. Mountain (5.5%)
9. Pacific (14.6%)

(Page 19)

DATA OVERVIEW

(Page 20)

GOP IDEOLOGY: CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE
"If you were to label yourself, would you say you are a Liberal, a Moderate, or a Conservative in your political beliefs?
Alt Text: Pie chart with conservative at 49%, Moderate at 36%, Liberal at 12% and D.K./Refused at 3%
(If said Liberal or Conservative, asked: "And would that be very liberal/conservative or only somewhat liberal/conservative?")
Alt Text: Bar chart with DK/Ref. at 3.1%, Very Conservative at 18%, Somewhat Conservat. at 31.3%, Moderate at 35.5%, Somewhat Liberal at 8%, and Very Liberal at 4.10%
-1-

(Page 21)

SUPPORT TRADITIONAL VALUES AND OPPOSITION TO BIG GOVERNMENT AND SPENDING ARE LEADING ISSUE ASSOCIATIONS WITH CONSERVATISM
"When you think about Conservativism, what is the first thing that comes to mind?"
Alt Text: Bar Graph showing what the first thing that comes to mind when you think of conservatism. Traditional values coming in fist at 9.6% followed by Opp. Gov Spnd/Waste 9.5%, Opp. Big Govt. 3.5%, Strict/narrow Minded 3.3% No Chnge/Status Quo 3.3%, Economic/Fiscal Prin. 3.3%, Abortion/Pro-life 3.3%, Common Sns/Reason 3.1%, Oppose Taxes/Low 2.9%, Oppose Budg. Deficit 2.4%
-2-

(Page 22)

TAXES, SPENDING AND THE ECONOMY ARE THE CURRENT CONCERNS OF GOPers
"From the following list, which issue is personally most important to you?"
Alt Text: Bar graph showing which issues are personally important. Cutting Taxes and Wasteful gov't Spending 25.6, Reduce Unemployment & Get Economy Moving 15.5, Restore Honesty to Government 9.5, Improve Education 8.8, Fight Crime and Drugs 7.8, Prohibit Abortion 6.5, Provide Affordable Health Care 5.9, Protect Social Security 5.6, Strengthen National Defense & Keep U.S. Safe 4.6, Protect the Environment 3.9, Don't Know/Refused 6.4
-3-

(Page 23)

GOP NEAR EVENLY DIVIDED ON ABORTION ISSUE
"Which of the following comes closest to your opinion regarding the issue of abortion?"
Alt Text: Bar graph regarding opinions on abortion. With Right to Choose Abortion at Any Time 25.1, Right to Choose Abortion Within First 2 Mos. 26.4, Only in Case of Rape, Incest or Mother's Life 27.4, Only Permitted to Save Mother's Life 11.4, Should Never be Permitted 6.6, and Don't know/Refused 2.6.
-4-

(Page 24)

GOPers DON'T SEE PAT ROBERTSON AND THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT IN CONTROL OF PARTY
"Pat Robertson and Conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party."
Alt Text: Pie chart with Disagree at 76%, Agree 14%, and D.K./Ref. at 10%.
-5-

(Page 25)

GOPers DON'T BLAME BUSH LOSS ON BROKEN "NO NEW TAXES" PLEDGE
Alt Text: Pie chart with Disagree at 77%, agree 20%, and D.K./Ref/ at 3%
-6-

(Page 26)

MOST GOPers ATTRACTED TO PARTY BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC POLICIEs
"Think for a moment about which aspect of Republican philosophy most attracted you to the party - was it economic policies such as support for lower taxes, less government spending and economic growth; social policies such as support for the death penalty and education choice; moral policies such as opposition to abortion and gay rights or foreign policy such as opposition to communism and support of pro-freedom movements around the world?"
Alt Text: Bar graph with Economic Policies at 45.3%, Social Policies at 9.9% Moral Policies 11.9% Foreign Policies 15.1%, All 4 Reasons (vol.) 10.3%, None/Other Reasons 5.4%, DK/Ref. 2.3%.
-7-

(Page 27)

CONSERVATIVE VIEWS AND VIEWS/BELIEFS ARE WHAT GOPers LIKE MOST ABOUT THE PARTY
"What do you like most about the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: bar graph showing Conservative Views at 14.6%, Issues/Views/Beliefs 11.8%. Good Job/Like 7.5%, traditional Values 5.8%. Free Ent./Capitalism 4%, Oppose Big Govt. 3.6%, Oppose Taxes 3.6%, Foreign Policy 3.5%, Economic Issues 3.1%, Opp. Gov Spnd/Waste 3%
-8-

(Page 28)

GOPers CITE PERCEPTION CONCERS OVER SPECIFIC ISSUES AS PARTY NEGATIVES
"What do you like least about the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: bar graph with Fore Wealthy/Rich 6.4% Abortion/Pro-Life 5.6%, Too/Ultra Conserv. 4.6%, Bad pres. Campaign 4.3%, Out Touch/Mid Class 2.9%, Not fight GOP Issues 2.9%, Scandal/Corruption 2.4% Flip-Flops/Brk Prom. 2.3%, Economic Policies 2.1% Some Bad Candidates 2%
-9-

(page 29)

BUSH AND REAGAN STILL GOP STARS
"Now I am going to read you a list of names. Will you please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you have no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say so."

Alt Text: bar graph with Bill Bennet unfavorable 6.8 Favorable 17.1 Phil Gramm unfavorable 10.6 Favorable 21.5 Pat Buchanan Unfavorable 34.9 Favorable 32.6 Dan Quayle unfavorable 25.3 favorable 60.1 Pat Robertson unfavorable 39.6 Favorable 27.6 Bob Dole unfavorable 10.4 favorable 62.1 Jack Kemp unfavorable 9.9 Favorable 44.8 Ronald Reagan Unfavorable 16.9 Favorable 73.1 George Bush unfavorable 9.6 favorable 85.5.
-10-

(Page 30)

SEN. DOLE SEEN AS PARTY LEADER, BUT LEADERSHIP VACUUM APPARENT
"With President Bush leaving office, who in your opinion is now the leader of the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: Bar graph with Bob Dole 23.6%, Jack Kemp 9.3%, None/No Leader 6.6%, Jim Baker 4.4%, George Bush (still) 4.4%, Dan Quayle 2.4%, Pat Buchanan 0.8%, Ronald Reagan 0.5%, Rush Limbaugh 0.4%, Phil Gramm 0.4%
-11-

(Page 31)

GOPers WANT A NATIONAL CHAIRMAN WHO WILL UPHOLD CONSERVATIVE POSITIONS AND BE A SPOKESMAN
"In January, the members of the Republican National Committee will choose a new Chairman who will run the Party for the next two years. In your opinion, which of the following traits or characteristics is most important for this new Chairman to have?" (Choices Rotated)
Alt Text: Bar graph Uphold Conservative Positions 27.9%, Discuss/Debate National Issues 22.6%, "Nuts and Bolts" Campaign Exper. 17.5%, Not from Washington/Future Cand. 16.1%, All of Choices (vol.) 7.4%, None of Choices (vol.) 2.8%, DK/Ref 5.8%
-12-

(Page 32)

GOPers SEE DEMOCRACTS AND CLINTON AS GREATEST THREATS
"In your opinion, who or what is the single greatest threat to the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: Bar graph with Democrats 7.8%, Bill Clinton 7.6%, Republicans 6.5%, Economy 4.1%, No Unity/Divisive 4%, Liberal Media 3%, Nothing/No Threat 2.9%, Liberals/Left Wing 2.8%, Too/Ultra Conserv. 2.6%, Ross Perot 2.5%
-13-

(Page 33)

ROSS PEROT COULD STEAL SOME REPUBLICANS
"If Ross Perot organized a third major national party, how likely is it that you would leave the Republican Party and join ross Perot's Independent party - very likely, only somewhat likely, not likely at all?"
Alt Text: Pie chart with not likely 53%, somewhat likely 26%, Very likely 17%, DK/Ref. 4%.
-14-

(Page 34)

GOPers WOULD LEAVE PARTY OVER SPENDING AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION
"The following are some reasons a person might leave the Republican Party. If each were true, tell me whether you would remain a Republican or would you leave the Republican Party?"
Alt Text: GOP Favored More Gov't Regulation Remain 47.6 Leave 40.8 GOP Supported Gay Rights Laws Remain 53.3 Leave 34.6 GOP Supported Military Cuts Remain 58.3 Leave 29.6 GOP Opposed Cutting Spending Remain 47.6 Leave 44.8 GOP Favored Abortion Rights Remain 66 Leave 26.3 GOP Favored Raising Taxes Remain 64.9 Leave 23.3
-15-

(Page 35)

GOPers CITE SPENDING, DEFICIT, BUDGET AND PERSONAL FREEDOM AS TOP PRIORITIES
"The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tell me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how you would rate each of the following?" (Questions Rotated)
"#1 - TOP PRIORITY" RESPONSES:
Alt Text: Bar Graph with Reduce ex-USSR Nuclear Weapons 50.1% Protect US from Mideast Terrorists 56.5% Promote Indiv. Liberty/Freedom 65.6% Strong National Defense 54.4% Support Vol. Public School Prayer 42.9% Eliminate Unnec. Govt. Regulations 43.9% Reduce Federal Bureaucracy 51% Promote Traditional Family Values 54.5% Free Cuba/Oust Fidel Castro 16.1% Reduce Federal Deficit 67.6% Balance Federal Budget 68.3% Reduce Business Taxes 24% Parent Choice for Child Education 39.5% Block Gay Rights Laws 20.6% Tougher Laws to Fight Crime 53% Reduce Personal Income Taxes 29% Prohibit Abortions 21.1% Affordable Health Care Solutions 46.3% Eliminate Wasteful Govt. Spending 78%.
-16-

(Page 36)

"The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tlel me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how would you rate each of the following?" (Questions Rotated)
MEAN RESPONSES:
Alt Text: Bar Graph with Reduce ex-USSR Nuclear Weapons 1.83 Protect US from Mideast Terrorists 1.74 Promote Indiv. Liberty/Freedom 1.57 Strong National Defense 1.72 Support Vol. Public School Prayer 2.34 Eliminate Unnec. Govt. Regulations 1.94 Reduce Federal Bureaucracy 1.8 Promote Traditional Family Values 1.91 Free Cuba/Oust Fidel Castro 3.52 Reduce Federal Deficit 1.58 Balance Federal Budget 1.53 Reduce Business Taxes 2.57 Parent Choice for Child Education 2.19 Block Gay Rights Laws 3.33 Tougher Laws to Fight Crime 1.84 Reduce Personal Income Taxes 2.5 Prohibit Abortions 3.47 Affordable Health Care Solutions 1.84 Eliminate Wasteful Govt. Spending 1.37.
-17-

(Page 37)

KEMP AND DOLE LEAD FRAGMENTED '96 FIELD
"From the following list, who is your first choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1996?" (Choices Rotated)
Alt Text: Bar Graph with Jack Kemp 21.6% Bob Dole 21.1% Jim Baker 11.3% Dan Quayle 10.3% Dick Cheney 6.1% Pat Buchanan 4% Pat Robertson 2.8% Phil Gramm 2.5% Other 1.6% William Weld 1.3% Pete DuPont 0.9% Bill Bennett 0.1% Undecided 16.5%

(Page 38)

KEY FINDINGS

(Page 39)

Key Findings:
· The future of the Republican Party will be determined by the future of the conservative movement. Conservatives in the Party outnumber liberals by a 4 to 1 ratio.
· Positive associations with conservatism far outweigh the negatives among Republicans.
· The Republican Party and it's conservative base are held together by an economic foundation opposed to government spending and waste.
· Social issue differences among Republicans appear to be a low priority. The overwhelming majority do not see their party being controlled by the religious right.
· There is a leadership vacuum within the Republican Party where over half the Republicans cannot cite their Party's leader and want a conservative spokesman to be Party Chairman.
· Ross Perot presents a serious threat to the future of the Republican Party. Four in 10 Republicans are to some degree likely to join a Perot Party.
· Pro-choice and pro-life positions among Republicans literally split the party in half. This makes it very unlikely that Republicans will be able to achieve consensus on this issue. For the time being, most Republicans will agree to disagree and focus on other issues of greater concern.

(Page 40)

· Reinforcing the Republican Party's economic conservative foundation, the largest majorities cite cutting wasteful government spending, balancing the budget, and reducing the deficit as their top priorities.
· Seven out of 10 Republicans favor tax breaks for health care reform over government-run national health care or forcing private businesses to provide insurance.
· Both former Presidents Bush and Reagan remain overwhelmingly popular with Republicans. Bob Dole and Dan Quayle are also perceived favorably by six in 10 Republicans. Jack Kemp has a very strong ratio of favorables to unfavorables as well. Phil Gramm and Bill Bennett are lesser known but are developing potential. Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson have gained serious negatives.
· In the early contest for President, Jack Kemp and Bob Dole are in a dead heat - with Kemp carrying conservatives and Dole the moderates. However, the field remains fragmented for a new face to emerge.

(Page 41)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(Page 42)

SECTION #1: WHERE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS TODAY
The Republican Party remains solidly conservative with self- identified conservatives outnumbering liberals by a 4 to 1 margin. Total Liberals: 12.1%; Total Conservatives: 49.3%
Republican Ideology: Total
Liberal 4.1%
Somewhat Liberal 8.0%
Moderate 35.5%
Somewhat Conservative 31.3%
Very Conservative 18.0%
Don't Know/Refused 3.1%
When Republicans were asked for their associations with conservatism, the leading answers were overwhelmingly positive and issue-oriented. The largest share focused on conservative economic and value positions. Overall, almost half of the responses focused upon conservative values and economic principles such as "traditional values", "opposing government spending and waste", "fiscal principles", and "opposing taxes". Only one in 12 responded in the negative with "strict/narrow-minded", "no change". Abortion was cited by only 3.3% and the "Religious Right" by only 1.4%. Three in 10 Republicans had no leading association.
"When you think about conservatism and the conservative philosophy, what is the first thing that comes to mind?"
(Leading Responses) Total
Don't Know/Nothing 31.8%
Traditional Values 9.6%
Oppose Gov't Spending/Waste 9.5%
Oppose Big Gov't/For Less Gov't 3.5%
Strict/Narrow-minded 3.3%
No Change/Status Quo 3.3%
Economic/Fiscal Principles 3.3%
Common Sense/Thoughtful 3.1%
Oppose Taxes 2.9%
Fight Federal Deficit 2.4%
Individual Freedom 2.3%
Oppose Welfare Giveaways 2.3%
1

(Page 43)

When Republicans were asked from a specific set of issues which was personally most important to them, the economic issues of cutting taxes and waste and reducing unemployment far outweighed concerns for other domestic and defense issues. Only 6.5% of all Republicans said prohibiting abortion was their most important concern. Cutting waste mattered most to conservatives. Jobs seem to be more important to moderates and liberals.
"Which is personally most important to you?"

Total
Lib
Mod
Cons
Cutting Taxes and Wasteful Gov't Spending
25.6%
11.3%
22.5%
31.2%
Reducing Unemployment/ Getting Economy moving
15.5%
16.5%
19.0%
13.2%
Restoring Honesty to Gov't
9.5%
10.3%
8.5%
10.4%
Improving Education
8.8%
9.3%
12.0%
6.6%
Fighting Crime and Drugs
7.8%
6.2%
7.4%
8.6%
Prohibiting Abortion
6.5%
4.1%
3.5%
9.1%
Providing Affordable Health Care
5.9%
12.4%
6.3%
3.8%
Protecting Social Security
5.6%
6.2%
7.7%
3.8%
Strengthening National Defense
4.6%
6.2%
2.8%
5.3%
Protecting the Environment
3.9%
12.4%
3.5%
2.0%
Don't Know/Refused
6.4%
5.2%
6.7%
5.8%

The large majority of Republican voters became Republicans based upon the Party's economic policies of less government and lower taxes. The second most important factor was foreign policy. Ironically, those issues which were cited in the media as dividing the Republican Party between morally conservative positions and more secular social issues positions matter least.
"Which aspect of the Republican philosophy most attracted you to the Party?"

Total
Lib
Mod
Cons
Economic policies: Lower Taxes, Less Gov't, Economic Growth
45.3%
40.2%
47.5%
45.2%
Social Policy: Death Penalty, Educational Choice
4.9
11.3
8.8
9.6
Moral Policies: Abortion, Anti-Gay Rights
11.9
14.4
7.7
14.7
Foreign Policy: Anti-Communism, Pro-Freedom
15.1
16.5
19.7
12.2
All (Volunteered)
10.3
9.3
6.3
13.2
None (Volunteered)
5.4
7.2
6.3
3.6
Don't Know/Refused
2.3
1.0
3.5
1.5
2

(Page 44)

Reinforcing the Republicans' conservative foundation, when Republicans were asked what they like most about the Republican Party, roughly two-thirds cited an issue position whether general or specific. Once again, the positives of conservatism, particularly the number of economic responses, prove that conservatism is critical to future Republican success.
"What do you like most about the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)
Total
Don't Know/Refused/Nothing 17.4%
Conservative Issue Positions 14.6%
Issues/Views/Beliefs 11.8%
Good Job/Like Candidates 7.5%
Traditional Values 5.8%
Free Enterprise 4.0%
Oppose Big Gov't/For Less Gov't 3.6%
Oppose Taxes 3.6%
Foreign Policy 3.5%
Economic Issues 3.1%
Oppose Gov't Spending/Waste 3.0%
For People/Empowerment 2.9%
Successful 2.1%
Abortion/Pro-Life 2.0%
When Republicans were asked what they liked least about their party, one-third didn't know, while most of the remaining negatives could be grouped into categories of style and campaign tactics. One in six Republicans cited the typical scapegoats of abortion and being too conservative as a group as what they like least about their party.
"What do you like least about the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)
Total
Don't Know/Refused/Nothing 33.7%
For Rich 6.4%
Abortion/Pro-Life 5.6%
Too Conservative 4.6%
Bad Presidential Campaign 4.3%
Out-of-Touch With Middle-Class 2.9%
Need to Fight Democrats 2.4%
Scandals/Corruption 2.4%
Flip-Flops, Broken Promises 2.3%
The Economy 2.1%
Bad Candidates 2.0%
Budget Deficit 1.9%
3

(Page 45)

Three-quarters of all Republicans disagree with the statement that Pat Robertson and conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party. Only one in seven gave credence to that remark.
"Pat Robertson and conservative Christians are in control of the Republican Party?"

Total
Lib
Mod
Cons
Agree
13.9%
16.5%
15.5%
12.2%
Disagree
76.1%
63.9%
75.0%
80.5%
Don't Know/Refused
10.0%
19.6%
9.5%
3.4%

With no apparent leader, the Republican Party appears to be extremely vulnerable to defections to a new political party if Ross Perot creates a third national party.
Overall, four in 10 Republicans claim they would be "likely" to join a Perot Party with one in six Republicans saying they are "very likely" to leave the Republican Party for Perot.
These defections are potentially highest among liberal Republicans, those concerned with unemployment, those who favor unrestricted abortions and those attracted to the Republican Party on social issues.
"If Ross Perot organized a third major national party, how likely is it that you would leave the Republican Party and join Ross Perot's Independent Party?"

Total
Lib
Mod
Cons
Unemp. Econ.
Unres. Choice
Social Policies
Very likely
16.6%
27.8%
14.8%
14.2%
24.2%
22.4%
25.3%
Somewhat Likely
26.5%
32.0%
31.7%
32.6%
25.8%
28.9%
34.2%
Not Likely
53.0%
36.1%
50.0%
60.4%
46.0%
45.8%
38.0%
Don't Know/Ref.
3.9%
4.1%
3.5%
3.8%
4.0%
3.0%
2.5%

When Republicans were asked what trait or characteristic they prefer to see in the Party's next chairman, the desire for leadership becomes apparent again. Republicans decidedly would prefer a conservative spokesman who could discuss and debate issues in the national arena rather than a nuts and bolts tactician.
4

(Page 46)

"In January, the members of the Republican National Committee will choose a new Chairman who will run the Party for the next two years. In your opinion, which of the following traits or characteristics is most important for this new Chairman to have?"
Total
1. Will uphold the Republican Party's conservative positions 27.9%
2. Can discuss and debate national issues in the media 22.6%
3. Have "nuts and bolts" grassroots campaign experience 17.5%
4. Is not connected to the Washington establishment or any future presidential candidate 16.1%
5. All of the above (Volunteered) 7.4%
6. None of the above (Volunteered) 2.8%
7. Don't Know/Refused 5.8%
The polarization on abortion as a single issue becomes very clear when Republican voters were asked to describe their own personal position. Republicans were almost equally divided between generally pro-choice and pro-life positions. Such a political equilibrium on an issue which is tied to ideology explains why Republicans are having trouble building a consensus position on this issue.
"Which of the following comes closest to your opinion regarding the issue of abortion?"

Total
Lib
Mod
Cons
A woman should have an unrestricted right to choose to have an abortion at any time
25.1%
36.1%
28.9%
19.0%
A woman should have the right to choose an abortion for any reason within the first 3 months of pregnancy
26.4%
35.1%
33.1%
19.3%
Abortion should only be permitted in case of rape, incest or to protect the health of the mother
27.4%
18.6%
22.5%
32.7%
Abortion should only be permitted to save the life of the mother
11.4%
5.2%
6.7%
17.8%
Abortion should not be permitted under any circumstances
6.6%
4.1%
6.0%
8.1%
Don't know/Refused
2.6%
1.0%
2.8%
3.0%
5

(Page 47)

When Republicans were asked to rate their leaders, former Presidents Bush and Reagan are very popular and still hold the overwhelming good will of their Party. Bob Dole, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle are top tier leaders who could use their popularity to build consensus. Both Dole and Kemp have very good ratios of favorables to unfavorable, while Quayle has somewhat higher negatives. Bill Bennett and Phil Gramm have the potential to broaden their popularity.
Jim Baker, Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson appear to be too polarizing with substantial negatives to unite the party without changing current perceptions.
Bill Clinton is generally disliked by Republicans while Ross Perot remains a threat by maintaining high favorables among Republicans.
Media celebrity Rush Limbaugh is recognized by 3 of every 4 Republicans and is well liked with a 2 to 1 positive to negative ratio.
Net Popular Rating Scale
Fav
Unfav
No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Net Rating
George Bush
85.6%
9.6%
4.8%
-
+76.0%
Ronald Reagan
73.1%
16.9%
9.8%
0.3%
+56.2%
Bob Dole
62.1%
10.4%
21.8%
5.8%
+51.7%
Jack Kemp
44.8%
9.9%
32.3%
12.1%
+34.9%
Dan Quayle
60.1%
25.3%
14.0%
0.6%
+34.8%
Rush Limbaugh
34.0%
17.1%
23.8%
25.1%
16.9%
Ross Perot
44.5%
32.3%
2.6%
0.6%
+12.2%
Bill Bennett
17.1%
6.8%
28.4%
47.8%
+10.3%
Phil Gramm
21.5%
10.6%
29.4%
37.5%
+9.9%
Jim Baker
40.0%
37.8%
18.6%
3.6%
+2.2%
Pat Buchanan
32.6%
34.9%
27.6%
4.9%
-2.3%
Bill Clinton
31.1%
42.6%
26.3%
-
-11.5%
Pat Robertson
27.6%
39.6%
24.0%
8.8%
-12.0%
6

(Page 48)

SECTION #2: THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND THE FUTURE
Whatever can be said of the Republican Party's current liabilities, it has far many more assets which should give the Party hope and optimism.
On the issues, it is extremely clear that Republicans are strongly united by their fiscal conservatism and belief in individual liberty. If there is a revolt coming against excessive government spending in the 90's as the tax revolt came in the 70's, Republicans appear to be in a strong position to lead that change.
When we asked Republicans to rate their top priority among 19 issues, it is clear that there is a lot more to unite Republicans than divide them. The following table shows the percentage of Republicans who, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 being a top priority, rated that issue stand as a top priority. 0
"The following is a list of potential policy goals for the Republican Party. Please tell me on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a top priority and 5 being not a priority at all, how you would rate each of the following? (Rotate questions)"
Issues Ranking by Percentage as Top Priority
Total
Cons
Unemp Econ
Unres. Choice
Perot V/L
Social Policy
Eliminate Wasteful Gov't Spending
78.0%
78.2%
79.0%
79.1%
83.5%
72.2%
Balance the Federal Budget
68.3%
66.5%
68.5%
70.1%
74.4%
62.0%
Reduce the Federal Deficit
67.6%
65.2%
68.5%
70.6%
74.4%
67.1%
Promote Individual Freedom and Liberty
65.6%
67.5%
62.1%
72.6%
67.7%
60.8%
Protect America from MidEast terrorists
56.5%
56.3%
48.4%
56.2%
59.4%
50.6%
Promote Traditional Family Values
54.5%
62.2%
49.2%
45.3%
52.6%
59.5%
Maintain a Strong Nat'l Defense
54.4%
61.9%
42.7%
47.8%
48.9%
53.2%
Enact Tougher Laws to Fight Crime
53.0%
52.8%
47.6%
51.7%
60.2%
53.2%
7
(Page 49)

-TABLE CONTINUED-
Issue Ranking by Percentage as Top Priority
Total
Cons
Unemp. Econ.
Unres. Choice
Perot V/L
Social Policy
Reduce the Size of the Federal Bureaucracy
51.0%
54.1%
42.7%
48.3%
57.1%
48.1%
Reduce Soviet Nuclear Weapons
50.1%
50.8%
49.2%
47.8%
51.1%
51.9%
Find Solution to Provide Affordable Health Care
46.3%
41.6%
57.3%
45.3%
54.9%
53.2%
Eliminate Unnecessary Federal Regulations
43.9%
49.5%
37.9%
46.3%
41.4%
41.8%
Support Voluntary Prayer in Public Schools
42.9%
50.0%
29.8%
30.8%
47.4%
46.8%
Promote Parental Choice for Children's Education
39.5%
44.4%
33.1%
41.3%
41.5%
46.8%
Reduce Personal Income Taxes
29.0%
30.5%
24.2%
25.9%
30.1%
29.1%
Reduce Business Taxes
24.0%
26.4%
24.2%
21.9%
31.6%
24.1%
Prohibit Abortion
21.1%
26.6%
17.7%
4.5%
18.8%
22.8%
Block Gay Rights Laws
20.6%
29.4%
12.9%
10.4%
21.8%
24.1%
Free Cuba from Communism by Fidel Castro
16.1%
14.0%
16.1%
12.9%
18.8%
20.3%
8

(Page 50)

If Republicans do not view their own conservatism as a serious problem then what do they see as their greatest threat? It can be summed up in two words - "Liberal Democrats". When Republicans were asked to cite the single greatest threat to the Republican Party, roughly one-quarter cited liberal Democrats, Bill Clinton, etc. Another one in five cited campaign and tactical considerations - for example, "party insiders", "disunity", and "no leadership". Only 6.8% gave answers which cited "too conservative", religious right", "Pat Robertson", "abortion", etc.
"In your opinion, who or what is the single greatest threat to the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)
Total
Don't Know/Refused/Nothing 30.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.8%
Bill Clinton 7.6%
Republican Insiders 6.5%
Economic Problems 4.1%
No Unity/Disorganized 4.0%
Liberal Media 3.0%
Liberals/Left Wing 2.8%
Too Conservative 2.6%
Ross Perot 2.5%
out-of-Touch With Middle-Class 2.1%
Deficit 1.9%
No Leadership 1.9%
Religious Right 1.6%
Not Fight for Conservatives 1.6%
Liberal Republicans 1.5%
Liberals in Congress 1.4%
On a series of controversial issue positions, if the Republican Party were to change this stand, we asked Republican voters if they would leave their party. Ironically, this table of the percentages of those who would leave the party shows that George Bush compromised on the most damaging issue of spending with the 1990 Budget Act but he held firm on abortion, which appears to be the least damaging of the set.
Among those who were concerned about those groups which helped the Democrats pick the GOP's "electoral lock" - those concerned with unemployment, very likely to join a Perot party, and social policy Republicans - the spending issue was most important while abortion became less important as a reason to be a Republican.
9

(Page 51)

"Would you remain a Republica or would you leave the Party if you knew the Republican Party..."
Percentage would leave party:

Total
Unemp. Econ.
Perot Very Likely
Social Policies
Opposed Cutting Wasteful Government Spending
44.8%
50.0%
51.1%
58.2%
Favored more gov't regulation
40.8%
43.5%
43.6%
45.6%
Supported Gay Rights Laws
34.6%
25.0%
33.1%
40.5%
Supported a Drastic Cut in the Military
29.6%
27.4%
33.8%
27.8%
Favored Raising Taxes
26.3%
19.4%
24.8%
21.5%
Supported Abortion Rights
23.3%
30.6%
27.1%
21.5%

Over one-half of the Republicans polled had no idea who is now the leader of the Republican Party. Among those who did cite a leader, Bob Dole was named by roughly one-fourth of those polled. Jack Kemp was second being cited by about one in 10 Republicans. In all, 17 different leaders were cited. All of the responses were men, which may help explain why more Republican women did not cite a leader.
"With President Bush leaving office, who in your opinion is now the leader of the Republican Party?"
(Leading Responses)

Total
Men
Women
Don't Know/Refused/No Leader
52.5%
43.2%
61.6%
Bob Dole
23.6%
26.8%
20.5%
Jack Kemp
9.3%
12.6%
5.9%
Jim Baker
4.4%
4.5%
4.2%
(Still) George Bush
4.4%
5.1%
3.7%
Dan Quayle
2.4%
2.8%
2.0%
Pat Buchanan
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
Ronald Reagan
0.5%
0.1%
-
Rush Limbaugh
0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Phil Gramm
0.4%
0.3%
0.5%

On the Clinton Democrats top issue, the vast majority of Republicans favor health care reform which cuts taxes for individuals and families. With this kind of strong consensus, Republicans should be able to promote a health care proposal with tax credits for health insurance and medical expenses which would draw strong popular support.
10

(Page 52)

"There are three basic proposals being suggested to reform our health care system, please tell me which of these proposals you favor most?"
Total
1. A system where private businesses would be forced by law to provide coverage for all its employees regardless of the cost 9.0%
2. A gov't run nat'l health care system which would be funded by establishing a nat'l sales tax and increasing income taxes 12.0%
3. Reforming the current system by making it more affordable by creating more tax breaks for individuals and families wishing to purchase health care 71.3%
4. Maintain current system (Volunteered) 2.1%
5. Don't Know/Refused 5.6%
When Republicans were asked about their 1996 choice to run for President, no single Republican has captured the passion and support of the Party's rank and file. Jack Kemp and Bob Dole are the front- runners. For Kemp, this is a very good sign considering the higher favorable ratings of Dole and Quayle. James Baker and Dan Quayle are in double digits, but the field is well-fragmented where a brand new leader could siphon support from the others.
Within the party's ideological dynamics, Kemp is already well- positioned with conservatives while Dole leads among the moderates and liberals.
"From the following list, who is your first choice for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 1996?"

Total
Lib
Mod
Cons
Jack Kemp
21.6
10.3
20.8
25.1
Bob Dole
21.1
23.7
24.3
18.5
James Baker
11.3
12.4
13.4
9.4
Dan Quayle
10.3
12.4
7.7
11.7
Dick Cheney
6.1
4.1
7.0
6.3
Pat Buchanan
4.0
4.1
2.1
5.1
Pat Robertson
2.8
4.1
1.8
3.3
Phil Gramm
2.5
1.0
2.1
3.3
Bill Weld
1.3
0.0
2.1
1.0
Pete DuPont
0.9
0.0
1.4
0.8
Bill Bennett
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
Other
1.6
0.0
2.5
1.0
Undecided
16.5
27.8
14.8
14.2
11

(Page 53)

KEY DEMOGRAPHICS
Education:
Total
Less Than High School Graduate 5.3%
High School Graduate 28.1%
Some College 27.1%
College Graduate 27.5%
Post Graduate 11.1%
Don't Know/Refused 0.9%

Household Income:
Total
Under $20,000 14.5%
Between $20,001 & $40,000 28.5%
Between $40,001 & $60,000 22.4%
Over $60,000 20.4%
Don't Know/Refused 14.3%

Ancestry:
Total
German 23.9%
Polish 13.5%
Italian 15.8%
European/English 24.9%
Russian 0.6%
Irish 14.6%
French/French Canadian 3.4%
Puerto Rican/Hispanic 1.5%
Greek 0.4%
African/American 1.5%
Don't Know/Refused 0.0%

Religion:
Total
Fundamentalist Protestant 11.0%
Evangelical Protestant 8.9%
Mainstream Protestant 45.8%
Catholic 26.1%
Jewish 0.9%
Atheist/Agnostic 1.9%
Don't Know/Refused 5.5%

Race:
Total
Hispanic 1.6%
African/American 1.6%
White 93.9%
Other 1.3%
Refused 1.6%
12

(Page 54)

Age:
Total
18-25 8.3%
26-40 32.9%
41-55 26.1%
56-65 11.8%
Over 65 19.8%
Refused 1.3%

Gender:
Total
Male 49.5%
Female 50.5%

Region:
Total
New England 6.3%
Middle Atlantic 15.5%
East North Central 18.5%
West North Central 8.5%
South Atlantic 15.8%
East South Central 5.6%
West South Central 9.8%
Mountain 5.5%
Pacific 14.6%
13

(Page 55)

Sen Dole
Dirksen Bldg
YEAS
NAYS
Bennett
Bond
Brown
Burns [illegible]
Chafee [illegible
Coats
Cochran
Cohen
Coverdell
Craig
D'Amato
Danforth
Dole
Domenici
Durenberger
Faircloth
Gorton
Gramm
Grassley
Gregg
Hatch
Hatfield
Helms
Jeffords Call her
Kassebaum
Kempthorne
Lott
Lugar
Mack
McCain
McConnell
Murkowski
Nickles
Packwood
Pressler
Roth
Simpson
Smith
Specter
Stevens
Thurmond
Wallop
Warner

[illegible] 3/1/93 3/1/93
(Printed by the Republican Secretary)
GPO: 1992 61-192 (m)

(Page 56)

Sen. Dole
Russell Bdlg
YEAS
NAYS
Bennett
Bond
Brown
Burns
Chafee
Coats
Cochran
Cohen
Coverdell
Craig
D'Amato
Danforth
Dole
Domenici
Durenberger C. Thomas
Faircloth
Gorton
Gramm
Grassley
Gregg
Hatch Kendra [illegible]
Hatfield
Helms
Jeffords
Kassebaum
Kempthorne
Lott M. Reilly
Lugar
Mack
McCain
McConnell
Murkowski
Nickles
Packwood
Pressler
Roth
Simpson
Smith
Specter
Stevens
Thurmond
Wallop S. Sherwood
Warner
(Printed by the Republican Secretary)
3/1/93
GPO: 1992 61-192 (m)

(Page 57)

Sen. Dole
HART Bldg
YEAS
NAYS
Bennett
Bond
Brown
Burns
Chafee
Coats
Cochran
Cohen
Coverdell
Craig
D'Amato
Danforth
Dole
Domenici
Durenberger
Faircloth
Gorton K Hanson
Gramm
Grassley
Gregg
Hatch
Hatfield
Helms
Jeffords
Kassebaum
Kempthorne
Lott
Lugar
Mack [illegible]
McCain
McConnell
Murkowski
Nickles
Packwood
Pressler
Roth [illegible]
Simpson
Smith
Specter
Stevens
Thurmond
Wallop
Warner
Michelle Heming
(Printed by the Republican Secretary)
3/1/93.
GPO: 1992 61-192 (m)

Position: 4173 (2 views)