Policy Luncheon, May 19, 1992

Transcription (Scripto)

Read Full Text Only (TXT)

Extent (Dublin Core)

7 Pages

File Name (Dublin Core)

lead_403_033_all

Title (Dublin Core)

Policy Luncheon, May 19, 1992

Date (Dublin Core)

1992-05-19

Date Created (Dublin Core)

1992-05-19

Congress (Dublin Core)

102nd (1991-1993)

Policy Area (Curation)

Congress

Creator (Dublin Core)

Dole, Robert J., 1923-2021

Kasten, Robert W., 1942-

Record Type (Dublin Core)

agendas (administrative records)

Rights (Dublin Core)

http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/CNE/1.0/

Language (Dublin Core)

eng

Collection Finding Aid (Dublin Core)

https://dolearchivecollections.ku.edu/index.php?p=collections/findingaid&id=26&q=

Physical Location (Dublin Core)

Collection 007, Box 403, Folder 33

Institution (Dublin Core)

Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS

Archival Collection (Dublin Core)

Robert J. Dole Republican Leadership Collection, 1985-1996

Full Text (Extract Text)

{page 1}
SCHEDULE FOR THE WEEK OF MAY 18, 1992
TODAY, TUESDAY, MAY 19
THE SENATE WILL RECONVENE AT 2:15 P.M., AND CONDUCT 3 ROLL CALL VOTES ON AMENDMENTS TO THE MOTOR VOTER BILL. FOLLOWING THE VOTES, THE SENATE WILL CONTINUE DEBATE ON AMENDMENTS TO THE MOTOR VOTER BILL, UNDER A UNANIMOUS CONSENT AGREEMENT ENTERED INTO ON LAST THURSDAY. AT NO LATER THAN 8:00 P.M., THE CHAIR WILL CONSIDER ANY REMAINING AMENDMENTS, AND THEN READ THE BILL FOR THE THIRD TIME. THE FINAL PASSAGE VOTE WILL OCCUR AT 10:00 A.M. ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, VOTES WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT TODAY'S SESSION, AND THAT SENATE COULD BE IN SESSION INTO THE EVENING, IN ORDER TO COMPLETE ACTION THE AMENDMENTS IN ORDER.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 20 - FRIDAY, MAY 22
FOLLOWING DISPOSITION OF THE MOTOR VOTER BILL ON WEDNESDAY, THE SENATE COULD BE ASKED TO TURN TO ANY OF THE FOLLOWING ITEMS:
SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS FOR L.A.
(IF AVAILABLE)
RESUME CONSIDERATION OF TELEPHONE PRIVACY:
(PENDING TO THAT ARE THE GRAMM AND BIDEN CRIME AMENDMENTS)
BUDGET RESOLUTION CONFERENCE REPORT
(UNDER A STATUTORY T/A OF 10 HRS.)
(IF AVAILABLE)
RESCISSION CONFERENCE REPORT
(UNDER A STATUTORY T/A OF 2 HRS.)
(IF AVAILABLE)
LEGISLATION RE: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT WITH RESPECT TO MEMBER PAY
THEREFORE, VOTES CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH DAY OF SENATE SESSION THIS WEEK.
{page 2}
POLICY LUNCHEON AGENDA Tuesday, May 19, 1992
Schedule:
:selected: 1. Pending: Motor Voter
· Amendments locked in -- final action on all amendments by 8:00 p.m. this evening.
· Vote on final passage -- 10:00 a.m. Wednesday.
2. Other Likely Issues This Week:
:selected: · Supplemental Appropriations Bill/Hatfield
· Committee Action today
· Hatch/Kennedy amendment will be added in Committee
:selected: · Rescission Conference Report/Hatfield
· Lott/Stevens Letter B2/SDI -- being circulated
:selected: · Budget Conference Report/Domenici
· Sports Gambling/Hatch
· Government Sponsored Enterprises Reform (GSE), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac/Garn
· Corporation for Public Broadcasting -- Time agreement should be ready for circulation later today.
3. Other Issues. :selected:
:selected: . Urban Package -- White House discussion this morning.
· Unemployment: Discussions on hold currently. Democrats pushing for costly reforms.
Murkowski = CK: STRIKER REPLACEMENT/ {illegible}?
{page 3}
Poll Watch {a black and white illustration of a line graph on a black grid.}
A Review of Recent National Polling Data
From the Office of the GOP Conference Secretary
Bob Kasten, Secretary
Bill Canfield, Staff Director
Rick Dearborn, Deputy
202-224-3496
Contents
5/19/92
1) Perot Leads Major-Party Candidates
(TIME/CNN Poll: 1,250 adults surveyed 5/13-14; margin of error +/- 2.8%; rel. 5/18)
2) Bush Job Approval (TIME/CNN Poll: 5/18/92)
3) OREGON POLL: Perot Leads 3-Way
(Oregonian Poll: 281 Dems surveyed 5/9-13; margin of error +/- 5.9%; KATU-TV Poll: conducted 5/4-7; rel USA Today 5/18)
4) SOUTH CAROLINA: South Holds Strong for Bush
(Greenville News Poll: 749 RVs surveyed; margin of error +/- 3.5%; rel. 5/12)
5) Urban Strife Highlights Bush Weakness
(Wash. Post Poll: 1,144 adults surveyed 5/11-12; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. 5/14)
6) Clinton: Enjoys 15% Positive Favorability Gap
(CNN/Gallup Poll: 1,015 adults surveyed 5/7-10; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. CNN 5/11)
{page 4}
1
1) PEROT LEADS MAJOR-PARTY CANDIDATES
(TIME/CNN Poll: 917 registered voters surveyed 5/13-14; margin of error +/- 3.2%; Full sample 1,250 adults; = /- 2.8%; rel. TIME 5/25 issue)

3-way General Election Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav 2-way General
NOW 4/92 Now 4/92 NOW
Perot 33% 21% 35% / 16% 30% / 15% Bush 38%
Bush 28 40 40 / 45 54 / 39 Clinton 35
Clinton 24 25 32 / 41 37 / 46 Undec. 17
Undec. 15 14

NOTE: In two-way match-up, 27% of voters backing Clinton and 25% backing Bush said they would switch to Perot in a 3- way race.
Of the Perot voters in the 3-way race, 29% would vote for Bush, 29% would vote for Clinton, and 42% are undecided in a 2-way race.

More on Perot
Can win in Fall… 38%
Protest Candidate/cannot win… 45

Support Perot Because Perot Voters
His leadership qualities/ stands on issues… 58%
Don’t like other candidates… 33

How much do you know about Perot ? RVs
A lot 6%
Some thing 26
Only a little 43
Nothing at all 25

Which candidate would do best job.. Perot Bush Clinton
Bringing change to government 39% 16% 25%
Reducing the budget deficit 37 17 20
Improving economic conditions 35 22 24
Insuring honesty in government 30 25 18
Helping the middle class 28 20 34
Looking out for people like yourself 26 24 26
Dealing with crime 22 29 22
Dealing with U.S. racial problems 17 21 31
Providing leadership in foreign policy 15 52 18
Protecting the environment 15 27 27

{page 5}
2
2) BUSH JOB APPROVAL (TIME/CNN Poll: 5/18/92)
Bush Job (Full Sample) – All Time Low NOW
NOW 4/92 5/91 DEMS GOPS INDS
Approve 37% 41% 73% 22% 57% 33%
Disapprove 54 50 18 70 35 59

Bush Job Good Poor
Handling foreign policy 57% 34%
Handling economy 17 77
Providing strong leadership 43 50
Promoting racial equality 29 59
Defending civil rights of all Americans 35 55

3) OREGON POLL: PEROT LEADS 3-WAY (Oregonian Poll: 281 Dems surveyed 5/9-13; margin of error +/- 5.9%; KATU-TV Poll: conducted 5/4-7 (USA Today, 5/18)

Oregonian DEM Primary NOW 4/92
Clinton 46% 36%
Brown 25 30
DK/Other 29 34

KATU-TV General Election
Perot 42%
Bush 31
Clinton 21
DK/Other 6

4) SOUTH CAROLINA: SOUTH HOLDS STRONG FOR BUSH (Greenville News Poll: 749 RVs surveyed; margin of error +/- 3.5%; rel. 5/10)
General 3-way DEM GOP BLK WHT MEN WOM Bush ’88 Voters (75% of RVs)
Bush 38% 13% 63% 14% 45% 42% 33% 51%
Clinton 15 36 2 30 11 15 14 7
Perot 14 10 16 4 17 17 11 16
DK/Other 31 39 18 48 23

General 2-way Perot Voters Black
Bush 47% 37% 16%
Clinton 21 25 35
DK/Other 21 37

{page 6}
3
5) URBAN STRIFE HIGHLIGHTS BUSH WEAKNESS (Wash. Post Poll: 1,144 adults surveyed 5/11-12; margin of error +/- 3%; Subsample: 858 RVs; +/- 3.5%; Oversample: 200 black adults; +/- 7%; rel. 5/14)
Reg. Voters 3-Way Now 4/92
Bush 33% 36%
Clinton 29 31
Perot 28 30

RVs: Who would be best dealing w/ ... ?
Bush Clinton Perot
Breakdown of family values 37% 24% 22%
Crime 34 26 22
Race relations 28 34 18
The economy 25 29 34
Unemployment 25 31 32
Problems of the inner cities 25 35 22
Poverty 22 36 27

Problems in Inner Cities
Getting better 2%
Getting worse 79
About the same 16

Major cause of urban problems
Failure of Bush/Reagan to deal 55%
Failure of the 60’s era programs 42

‘60s/’70s Programs on Poor People NOW 1/86
Helped 30% 56%
Hurt 24 15
No difference 36 21

‘60s/’70s Programs NOW
Right way to help poor 13%
Eliminate them and find a whole new approach… 67
Eliminate some, keep some 14

{page 7}
4
6) CLINTON: ENJOYS 15% POSITIVE FAVORABILITY GAP (CNN/Gallup Poll: 1,015 adults surveyed 5/7-10; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. CNN 5/11)
Bush Job Pref NOW 4/22 4/12 3/29 3/12 2/20 2/9 1/6
Approve 40% 42% 39% 42% 41% 39% 44% 46%
Disapprove 53 48 54 51 47 47 48 47

Among RVs 2-way General NOW 4/22 4/12 3/29 3/12 2/20 2/9
Bush 45% 50% 48% 54% 50% 53% 53%
Clinton 40 34 41 38 44 43 38
Undec. 15 16 11 8 6 4 9

Among RVs 3-way General NOW 4/22 4/1
Bush 35% 41% 44%
Perot 30 25 24
Clinton 29 26 25
Undec. 6 8 7

Among Adults
Bush handling of L.A. riots
ALL WHT BLK
Approve 41% 43% 21%
Disapprove 51 48 71
No Opinion 8 9 8

Among RVs
Would Clinton, Perot have done better job of handling L.A.?
Yes, Clinton 14%
Yes, Perot 13
Yes, Both 5
No, Neither 49

Among RVs
More/less likely to vote for Candidate as result of riots?
More Less NO Effect
Bush 4% 14% 80%
Clinton 10 8 77
Perot 9 6 73

Among RVs
Favorability Ratings (FAV/UNFAV)
NOW 4/20-22 4/9-12 3/26-29
Bush 50% / 47% 55% / 41% 48% / 44% 49% / 44%
Clinton 51 / 36 42 / 49 34 / 47 37 / 40
Perot 48 / 16 41 / 23 34 / 47 37 / 40
Among Adults: Who would do better improving conditions for urban minorities ?
Clinton 36%
Bush 21
Perot 20
All same (vol.) 1
None (vol.) 7
No Opinion 15

Among Adults: Approve/Disapprove Bush handling of these issues …
APP./DISAPP.
Foreign Affairs 52% / 43%
Abortion 35% / 46
Race relations 35 / 56
Crime 33 / 62
Economy 20 / 76

Policy Luncheon, May 19, 1992

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