(Page 1) POLICY LUNCHEON AGENDA Tuesday, June 30, 1992 1. Schedule: Under Consent Agreement: Tuesday: · Kasten -- 2 hours / vote · Byrd -- 2 hours / vote · If Byrd passes, Seymour withdraws · If Byrd fails -- Seymour 2 hours -- cloture motion vote. · If no cloture -- no further action today. Wednesday: · 9:00 a.m. -- Second cloture vote on Seymour. If cloture fails -- Seymour withdraws. 2. Other Issues Likely This Week: a. Soviet Aid · Over (Crossed off: 60) 78 amendments have been identified. · Mitchell likely to want to lock in agreement. b. Unemployment Conference Report Extended benefits expire July 4. Action to resolve Conference likely. Could end up being very partisan as Demos try to trigger veto just prior to their convention. c. Higher Education Conference Report · Agreement finally reached -- no veto · Action likely to be quick 3. Post July 4 Recess -- Heads Up · Any Appropriations bill available -- House will likely complete 11 of 13 bills by the time we return -- all but Labor/HHS and Commerce. · Energy Bill · Freedom of Choice Act · Enterprise Zones/Urban package (Page 2) SCHEDULE FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 29, 1992 TODAY, TUESDAY, JUNE 30 THE SENATE WILL RECONVENE AT 2:15 P.M., AND RESUME CONSIDERATION OF THE G.S.E. BILL, AND BEGIN 2 HOURS FOR DEBATE ON THE KASTEN AMENDMENT. (THE KASTEN AMENDMENT REQUIRES A 3/5TH MAJORITY IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE IN ORDER TO RAISE TAXES.) AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE 2 HOURS, A ROLL CALL VOTE WILL OCCUR ON ADOPTION OF THE KASTEN AMENDMENT. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THAT VOTE, THERE WILL BE 2 HOURS FOR DEBATE ON THE BYRD SUBSTITUTE FOR THE NICKLES AMENDMENT. (THE BYRD SUBSTITUTE WOULD REQUIRE THE PRESIDENT TO SUBMIT A BALANCED BUDGET JUST PRIOR TO THE ELECTION THIS YEAR, AND ONE OF THE WAYS IN WHICH HE MUST ACHIEVE A BALANCED BUDGET IS TO RAISE TAXES.) AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE 2 HOURS, A ROLL CALL VOTE WILL OCCUR ON THE BYRD AMENDMENT. IF THE BYRD AMENDMENT IS DEFEATED, THEN THERE WILL BE 2 HOURS FOR DEBATE PRECEDING A VOTE ON CLOTURE ON THE SEYMOUR/NICKLES BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT. IF THE BYRD SUBSTITUTE IS AGREED TO, THEN THE SENATE WOULD GO IMMEDIATELY TO FINAL PASSAGE OF THE G.S.E. BILL. THEREFORE, THREE ROLL CALL VOTES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING TODAY'S SESSION. WEDNESDAY, JULY 1 IF CLOTURE IS NOT INVOKED ON THE BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT ON TUESDAY, THEN A SECOND CLOTURE VOTE WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY, AT 10:00 A.M. FOLLOWING THE BALANCED ISSUE, THE SENATE WILL RESUME THE SOVIET AID BILL. A NUMBER OF AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFERED, THEREFORE, VOTES WILL OCCUR AND A LATE SESSION CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY, JULY 2 RESUME AND POSSIBLY COMPLETE ACTION ON THE SOVIET AID BILL. IF IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO COMPLETE THE BILL, THERE MAY BE AN ATTEMPT TO GET A U/C THAT WOULD LIMIT AMENDMENTS WHEN THE SENATE RETURNS FROM RECESS. ALSO, THE SENATE IS EXPECTED TO CONSIDER THE U.I. CONFERENCE REPORT PRIOR TO THE 4TH OF JULY RECESS. THEREFORE, LATE SESSIONS AND VOTES CAN BE EXPECTED. - AS OF NOON - APPROX. 80 AMDTS ON RUSSIAN AID (Page 3) Poll Watch A Review of Recent National Polling Data From the Office of the GOP Conference Secretary Bob Kasten, Secretary Bill Canfield, Staff Director Rick Dearborn, Deputy 202-224-3496 Contents 6/30/92 1) Clinton's Ratings Rise as Bush, Perot Battle (Wash Post Poll: 1,007 adults -- 785 RVs -- surveyed 6/24-28; m/e +/- 4%; rel. 6/30) 2) Bush 10% Lead in 12 Southern States (Atlanta Constitution Poll: 747 adults surveyed 6/21-24; m/e +/- 3.6%; rel. 6/27) 3) Perot's Unfavorables Double (CBS/NYT Poll: 1,315 adults surveyed 6/17-20; m/e +/- 3%; rel. 6/22) 4) Who Call Themselves Democrat, Republican and Independent ? (Atlanta Constitution Poll: rel. 6/27) 5) Should Constitution be Amended to Balance the Budget ? (CBS/NYT Poll: rel. 6/22) 6) Which Party Would Best Uphold Family Values ? (CBS/NYT Poll; rel. 6/22) 7) Abortion Polling: Favor or Oppose Roe v. Wade ? (Abortion Report Polling: L. Harris; rel. 6/25; Tarrance Group; rel. 6/11; AP Poll; rel. 6/10; Gallup Poll; rel. 1/22) (Page 4) 1 1) CLINTON’S RATINGS RISE AS BUSH, PEROT BATTLE (Wash post poll: 1,007 adults – 785 RVs – surveyed 6/24-28’ margin of error +/- 4%; rel. 6/30) Q: “If the 1992 Presidential lection were being held today, and the candidates were George Bush, the republican candidate, Bill Clinton, the Democrat and Ross Perot, the Independent, for whom would you vote?” Candidate NOW 6/7 5/31 5/12 4/26 4/9 Bush 28% 30% 31% 33% 36% 36% Clinton 33 26 29 29 31 29 Perot 31 36 34 28 30 26 Q: “Which of these views best describes yours?” The more I hear about Perot, the more I like him… 39% The more I hear about Perot, the less I like him 42 Neither 13 Don’t know 6 (Page 5) 2 2) BUSH 10% LEAD IN 12 SOUTHERN STATES (Atlanta Constitution Poll: 747 Southern adults surveyed 6/21-24; margin of error +/- 3.6%; rel. 6/27) 3-way ALL WHITE MEN WHITE WOMEN ALL BLACK/MINS Bush 39% 46% 46% 9% Clinton 29 22 37 41 Perot 27 47 41 12 NOTE: The poll… does not measure the strength of the candidates within individual states. Bush Job Approval NOW 1/92 9/91 Approve 38% 55% 73% Disapprove 49 33 20 Opinion of Clinton NOW 1/92 Favorable 28% 32% Unfavorable 34 9 Opinion of Perot NOW Favorable 27% Unfavorable 25 Prefer in the White House Insider 47% Outsider 44 U.S. Going in the… NOW 9/91 Right Direction 19% 44% Wrong Direction 73 44 3) PEROT’S UNFAVORABLE DOUBLE (CBS/NYT Poll: 1,315 adults surveyed 6/17-20; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. 6/22) NOW 5/92 Candidate FAV/UNFAV FAV/UNFAV Bush 29%/44% 30%/43% Perot 26/20 24/11 Clinton 16/40 15/40 (Page 6) 3 4) WHO CALL THEMSELVES DEMOCRAT, REPUBLICAN, INDEPENDENT? (Atlanta Constitution Poll: rel. 6/27) Q: “Who call themselves… “ DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS TOTAL 33% 29% 36% White males 19 36 42 White females 31 33 34 Black voters 75 5 17 5) SHOULD CONSITUTION BE AMENDED TO BALANCE THE BUDGET? (CBS/NYT Poll: rel. 6/22) Q: “Should the Constitution be amended to balance the budget?” YES 52% NO 34 Q: “Would you be willing to do without Social Security in order to reduce the deficit?” Willing 10% Not willing 86 Q: “Would you be willing to do without Social Security in order to reduce the deficit?” Willing 10% Not Willing 86 6) WHICH PARTY WOULD BEST UPHOLD FAMILY VALUES? (CBS/NYT Poll: rel. 6/22) Q: “Which party would best uphold family values?” ALL GOP DEM IND GOP 36% 73% 7% 29% DEM 39 9 73 33 Q: “Candidates should…” All Talk about family values 68% Stay out of it 28 (Page 7) 4 7) ABORTION POLLING: FAVOR OR OPPOSE ROE v. WADE? (Abortion Report Polling: L. Harris Poll: 1,255 surv. 6/5-10; m/e +/- 3%; rel. 6/25 ** Tarrance Group Poll: 1,000 RVs surv. 6/2-4; m/e 3.1%; rel. 6/11** AP Poll: 1,009 surv. 5/29-6/2; m/e +/- 3%; rel. 6/10** Gallup Poll: 1,001 surv. 1/16-19; m/e +/- 3%; rel. 1/22) 6/92 1991 1989 1985 1981 1979 1976 1973 1972 Favor 61% 65% 59% 50% 56% 60% 59% 52% 42% Oppose 35 33 37 47 41 37 28 41 46 Q: “Which candidate would be best at handling the abortion issue?” Bush 25% Clinton 27 Perot 22 (Tarrance Group Poll: 6/11) Q: “Abortion should be a woman’s decision made a/her doctor?” Agree 58% Disagree 20 Q: “Would you support a candidate based only on his/her abortion stance?” YES 25% NO 65 Q: “If Roe v. Wade is overturned, Abortion is my state should be…” Legal 57% Illegal 27 (AP Poll: 6/10) Provisions in the Pennsylvania Law: FAVOR OPPOSE 24 hour waiting period 75% 23% Informed consent 86 12 Parental consent 70 27 Spousal notification 73 25 (Gallup Poll: 1/22) (Page 8) THE NEW YORK TIMES OP-ED SATURDAY, JUNE 27, 1992 23 Reading Between the Polls By Kathleen A. Frankovic O® n June 1, CBS News reported that President Bush was the choice of 35 percent of the voters, Gov. Bill Clinton the choice of 27 percent and Ross Perot the choice of 26 percent. That day, ABC News put Mr. Perot at 34 percent, Mr. Bush at 31 percent and Mr. Clinton at 29 percent. A week later, a Time-CNN poll had Mr. Perot at 37 percent and Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton tied at 24 percent. A Newsweek-Gallup the same week showed Mr. Perot at 35 percent, Mr. Bush at 33 percent and Mr. Clinton at 25 percent. Who's right? Probably no one. But that doesn't mean any of the polls were badly done - or even wrong. Why? Nearly half the voters in survey after survey say they don't know enough about-Ross Perot to have any opinion. A third or more admit to similar ignorance about Governor Clinton. Under these circumstances, voter preferences are anything but solid. With such a volatile electorate, it's not surprising that the choices expressed in surveys can be shifted simply by the order in which the questions are asked. Here are some examples: · The New York Times/CBS News poll consistently reports lower numbers for Mr. Perot than other published surveys. Since 1976, the poll's Keys to voter indecision. practice has been to ask respondents to rate the candidates - or say they don't know enough about them - before asking their choice for President. Those who have said they don't know enough about Mr. Perot have probably been inhibited from saying they would vote for him - though some might otherwise have said they would. · The Time-CNN poll regularly reports the least support for President Bush. A possible reason: Before asking preference questions, the survey asks a question that yields high negative results, "How well do you think things are going in the country these days?" This may deter many voters from saying subsequently they want to re-elect the incumbent. · The Gallup Organization does the polling for Newsweek and CNN-USA Today. It has twice found that Ross Perot does better after voters have been asked to choose between Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton. Mr. Perot gets less support when the three-way choice - Bush vs. Clinton vs. Perot - is presented first. A recent poll by Princeton Survey Associates for the Times-Mirror Center for the People and the Press confirms the pattern. Having a three-way contest for the Presidency will make the fall election look more like a multi-candidate primary than a typical general election. Under these circumstances, polls could be less reliable predictors than usual. This will be especially true if voters start using the polls the way political insiders do - to make strategic choices based on the perceived viability of the candidates on Election Day. Voters may even abandon their most preferred candidate to insure the defeat of their least favored candidate. It is also possible that the polls will converge closer to Election Day, as voters think through their choices. Then, differences will be due more to who is asked what questions than the order in which the questions are presented. In the meantime, polls give us critical signals of distress and confusion. Those findings (on which all the surveys agree) are more important than the malleable figures of candidate support. Kathleen A. Frankovic, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, is director of surveys for CBS News. (Page 9) SENT BY: The TICKET CENTER ;6-30-92;10:46AM; LEGISLATIVE AFFAIRS+ 2024566221: #1 DRAFT 10:15 6/30 THE WHITE HOUSE Office of the Press Secretary For Immediate Release June 30, 1992 STATEMENT BY THE PRESIDENT I call upon the Senate today to cut through the procedural obstacles and pass a Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment. Americans overwhelmingly support a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced federal budget, and for good reason. The debt we accumulate today jeopardizes sustained economic growth and will burden our descendants for generations to come. A Balanced Budget Amendment would help to provide the necessary discipline to our Government -- both the Legislative and Executive Branches -- to make the difficult budget decisions. Although the House of Representatives voted earlier this month overwhelmingly in favor of a Balanced Budget Amendment, we fell just nine votes short of the necessary two-thirds majority. I strongly believe that that House vote should not be the end of the line. Senate passage of the Balanced Budget Amendment now before it would provide an opportunity for the House to reconsider its earlier close vote and, once and for all, move to put in place the fiscal discipline the American people demand.