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SCHEDULE FOR THE WEEK OF MAY 18, 1992
TODAY, TUESDAY, MAY 19
THE SENATE WILL RECONVENE AT 2:15 P.M., AND CONDUCT 3 ROLL CALL VOTES ON AMENDMENTS TO THE MOTOR VOTER BILL. FOLLOWING THE VOTES, THE SENATE WILL CONTINUE DEBATE ON AMENDMENTS TO THE MOTOR VOTER BILL, UNDER A UNANIMOUS CONSENT AGREEMENT ENTERED INTO ON LAST THURSDAY. AT NO LATER THAN 8:00 P.M., THE CHAIR WILL CONSIDER ANY REMAINING AMENDMENTS, AND THEN READ THE BILL FOR THE THIRD TIME. THE FINAL PASSAGE VOTE WILL OCCUR AT 10:00 A.M. ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, VOTES WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT TODAY'S SESSION, AND THAT SENATE COULD BE IN SESSION INTO THE EVENING, IN ORDER TO COMPLETE ACTION THE AMENDMENTS IN ORDER.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 20 - FRIDAY, MAY 22
FOLLOWING DISPOSITION OF THE MOTOR VOTER BILL ON WEDNESDAY, THE SENATE COULD BE ASKED TO TURN TO ANY OF THE FOLLOWING ITEMS:
SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS FOR L.A. 
(IF AVAILABLE)
RESUME CONSIDERATION OF TELEPHONE PRIVACY: 
(PENDING TO THAT ARE THE GRAMM AND BIDEN CRIME AMENDMENTS)
BUDGET RESOLUTION CONFERENCE REPORT 
(UNDER A STATUTORY T/A OF 10 HRS.) 
(IF AVAILABLE)
RESCISSION CONFERENCE REPORT 
(UNDER A STATUTORY T/A OF 2 HRS.) 
(IF AVAILABLE)
LEGISLATION RE: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT WITH RESPECT TO MEMBER PAY
THEREFORE, VOTES CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH DAY OF SENATE SESSION THIS WEEK.
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POLICY LUNCHEON AGENDA Tuesday, May 19, 1992
Schedule: 
:selected: 1. Pending: Motor Voter
· Amendments locked in -- final action on all amendments by 8:00 p.m. this evening.
· Vote on final passage -- 10:00 a.m. Wednesday.
2. Other Likely Issues This Week:
:selected: · Supplemental Appropriations Bill/Hatfield
· Committee Action today
· Hatch/Kennedy amendment will be added in Committee
:selected: · Rescission Conference Report/Hatfield
· Lott/Stevens Letter B2/SDI -- being circulated
:selected: · Budget Conference Report/Domenici
· Sports Gambling/Hatch
· Government Sponsored Enterprises Reform (GSE), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac/Garn
· Corporation for Public Broadcasting -- Time agreement should be ready for circulation later today.
3. Other Issues. :selected:
:selected: . Urban Package -- White House discussion this morning.
· Unemployment: Discussions on hold currently. Democrats pushing for costly reforms.
Murkowski = CK: STRIKER REPLACEMENT/ {illegible}? 
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Poll Watch {a black and white illustration of a line graph on a black grid.}
A Review of Recent National Polling Data
From the Office of the GOP Conference Secretary 
Bob Kasten, Secretary
Bill Canfield, Staff Director 
Rick Dearborn, Deputy 
202-224-3496
Contents
5/19/92
1) Perot Leads Major-Party Candidates 
(TIME/CNN Poll: 1,250 adults surveyed 5/13-14; margin of error +/- 2.8%; rel. 5/18)
2) Bush Job Approval (TIME/CNN Poll: 5/18/92)
3) OREGON POLL: Perot Leads 3-Way 
(Oregonian Poll: 281 Dems surveyed 5/9-13; margin of error +/- 5.9%; KATU-TV Poll: conducted 5/4-7; rel USA Today 5/18)
4) SOUTH CAROLINA: South Holds Strong for Bush 
(Greenville News Poll: 749 RVs surveyed; margin of error +/- 3.5%; rel. 5/12)
5) Urban Strife Highlights Bush Weakness 
(Wash. Post Poll: 1,144 adults surveyed 5/11-12; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. 5/14)
6) Clinton: Enjoys 15% Positive Favorability Gap 
(CNN/Gallup Poll: 1,015 adults surveyed 5/7-10; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. CNN 5/11)
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1) PEROT LEADS MAJOR-PARTY CANDIDATES
 (TIME/CNN Poll: 917 registered voters surveyed 5/13-14; margin of error +/- 3.2%; Full sample 1,250 adults; = /- 2.8%; rel. TIME 5/25 issue)

3-way General Election	Fav/Unfav	Fav/Unfav	2-way General
	NOW	4/92	Now	4/92		NOW
Perot	33%	21%	35% / 16%	30% / 15%	Bush	38%
Bush	28	40	40 / 45	54 / 39	Clinton	35
Clinton	24	25	32 / 41	37 / 46	Undec.	17
Undec.	15	14				

NOTE: In two-way match-up, 27% of voters backing Clinton and 25% backing Bush said they would switch to Perot in a 3- way race.
 Of the Perot voters in the 3-way race, 29% would vote for Bush, 29% would vote for Clinton, and 42% are undecided in a 2-way race.

More on Perot
Can win in Fall…	38%
Protest Candidate/cannot win…	45

Support Perot Because	Perot Voters
His leadership qualities/ stands on issues…	58%
Don’t like other candidates…	33

How much do you know about Perot ?	RVs
A lot	6%
Some thing	26
Only a little	43
Nothing at all	25

Which candidate would do best job..	Perot 	Bush 	Clinton
Bringing change to government	39%	16%	25%
Reducing the budget deficit	37	17	20
Improving economic conditions	35	22	24
Insuring honesty in government	30	25	18
Helping the middle class	28	20	34
Looking out for people like yourself	26	24	26
Dealing with crime	22	29	22
Dealing with U.S. racial problems	17	21	31
Providing leadership in foreign policy	15	52	18
Protecting the environment 	15	27	27

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2) BUSH JOB APPROVAL (TIME/CNN Poll: 5/18/92)
Bush Job (Full Sample) – All Time Low	NOW
	NOW	4/92	5/91	DEMS	GOPS	INDS
Approve	37%	41%	73%	22%	57%	33%
Disapprove	54	50	18	70	35	59

Bush Job	Good	Poor 
Handling foreign policy	57%	34%
Handling economy	17	77
Providing strong leadership	43	50
Promoting racial equality	29	59
Defending civil rights of all Americans	35	55

 3) OREGON POLL: PEROT LEADS 3-WAY (Oregonian Poll: 281 Dems surveyed 5/9-13; margin of error +/- 5.9%; KATU-TV Poll: conducted 5/4-7 (USA Today, 5/18)

Oregonian DEM Primary	NOW	4/92
Clinton	46%	36%
Brown 	25	30
DK/Other	29	34

KATU-TV General Election
Perot	42%
Bush	31
Clinton	21
DK/Other	6

4) SOUTH CAROLINA: SOUTH HOLDS STRONG FOR BUSH (Greenville News Poll: 749 RVs surveyed; margin of error +/- 3.5%; rel. 5/10)
General	3-way	DEM	GOP	BLK	WHT	MEN	WOM	Bush ’88 Voters (75% of RVs)
Bush 	38%	13%	63%	14%	45%	42%	33%	51%
Clinton	15	36	2	30	11	15	14	7
Perot	14	10	16	4	17	17	11	16
DK/Other	31	39	18	48				23

General 	2-way	Perot Voters	Black
Bush 	47%	37%	16%
Clinton	21	25	35
DK/Other	21		37

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5) URBAN STRIFE HIGHLIGHTS BUSH WEAKNESS (Wash. Post Poll: 1,144 adults surveyed 5/11-12; margin of error +/- 3%; Subsample: 858 RVs; +/- 3.5%; Oversample: 200 black adults; +/- 7%; rel. 5/14)
Reg. Voters 3-Way	Now	4/92
Bush	33%	36%
Clinton	29	31
Perot	28	30

RVs: Who would be best dealing w/ ... ?
	Bush 	Clinton 	Perot 
Breakdown of family values	37%	24%	22%
Crime 	34	26	22
Race relations	28	34	18
The economy	25	29	34
Unemployment 	25	31	32
Problems of the inner cities	25	35	22
Poverty 	22	36	27

Problems in Inner Cities
Getting better	2%
Getting worse	79
About the same	16

Major cause of urban problems
Failure of Bush/Reagan to deal	55%
Failure of the 60’s era programs	42

‘60s/’70s Programs on Poor People	NOW	1/86
Helped	30%	56%
Hurt	24	15
No difference	36	21

‘60s/’70s Programs	NOW
Right way to help poor	13%
Eliminate them and find a whole new approach…	67
Eliminate some, keep some	14

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6) CLINTON: ENJOYS 15% POSITIVE FAVORABILITY GAP (CNN/Gallup Poll: 1,015 adults surveyed 5/7-10; margin of error +/- 3%; rel. CNN 5/11)
Bush Job Pref	NOW	4/22	4/12	3/29	3/12	2/20	2/9	1/6
Approve 	40%	42%	39%	42%	41%	39%	44%	46%
Disapprove 	53	48	54	51	47	47	48	47

Among RVs 2-way General	NOW	4/22	4/12	3/29	3/12	2/20	2/9
Bush	45%	50%	48%	54%	50%	53%	53%
Clinton 	40	34	41	38	44	43	38
Undec. 	15	16	11	8	6	4	9

Among RVs 3-way General	NOW	4/22	4/1
Bush	35%	41%	44%
Perot 	30	25	24
Clinton 	29	26	25
Undec.	6	8	7

Among Adults 
Bush handling of L.A. riots
	ALL	WHT	BLK
Approve 	41%	43%	21%
Disapprove 	51	48	71
No Opinion	8	9	8

Among RVs
Would Clinton, Perot have done better job of handling L.A.?
Yes, Clinton	14%
Yes, Perot	13
Yes, Both	5
No, Neither	49

Among RVs
More/less likely to vote for Candidate as result of riots?
	More 	Less 	NO Effect
Bush 	4%	14%	80%
Clinton 	10	8	77
Perot 	9	6	73

Among RVs
Favorability Ratings (FAV/UNFAV)
	NOW 	4/20-22	4/9-12	3/26-29
Bush 	50% / 47%	55% / 41%	48% / 44%	49% / 44%
Clinton 	51 / 36	42 / 49	34 / 47	37 / 40
Perot 	48 / 16	41 / 23	34 / 47	37 / 40
Among Adults: Who would do better improving conditions for urban minorities ?
Clinton 	36%
Bush 	21
Perot 	20
All same (vol.)	1
None (vol.)	7
No Opinion	15

Among Adults: Approve/Disapprove Bush handling of these issues … 
	APP./DISAPP.
Foreign Affairs	52% / 43%
Abortion 	35% / 46
Race relations	35     / 56
Crime 	33     / 62
Economy 	20     / 76